BITCOIN (BTC/XBT) DAILY LONG&SHORT TRADE SETUPS 2020/12/31
MARKET OVERVIEW
TRADE(S) RECAP
There wasn't a trade yesterday, but 3 days ago we had a successful trade that gave us a 3:1 Risk Reward Ratio, meaning you could've made 3BTC for every BTC risked.
TRADE SETUPS
Below are three potential trade setups. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal.
Long Trade Setup #1: Breakout and Continuation
To open a long position, we are waiting for price to break resistance, move back down to test previous resistance as support and then bounce back up.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $29.3K with force, creating space between the price and $29.3K, falls back down to $29.3K and bounce back up.
2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle)
2.1 Ideally Engulfing / Break candle has a large candle body with small wicks
2.2 Ideally Engulfing /Break candle closes near the highs of the candle
3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar, or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks)
4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink)
Long Trade Setup #2: Retest and Continuation (200MAs)
To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace back down to test the 200MAs and then continue moving up.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the 200MAs and bounce. 200MAs are currently sitting at ~$28K, but will move as price moves.
2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle)
3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar, or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks)
4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink)
Short Trade Setup: False Breakout
To open a short position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal resistance @ $29.3K and then fall back down.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $29.3K and then rapidly falls below $29.3K, forming a bull trap
2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakout candlestick (candle close above $29.3K) followed by a breakdown candlestick (candle close below $29.3K)
2.1 Ideally breakout and breakdown candlesticks are consecutive candles, but can also have a few candles in between the two
2.2 Ideally the breakdown candle has a large candle body with very small wicks
3. Volume: Above average volume ( volume above the average volume line) on both breakout candle and breakdown candle, ideally the breakdown candle's volume is a local high
4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less positive (color changing from dark green to light green)
ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS
Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management.
TRADE MANAGEMENT
Entry: We typically enter on the candle close of the entry signal candle.
Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks.
Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but I will also post a few take profit targets for you to scale out of the trade.
Adjustments: You can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to adjust/manage the trade depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with.
HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS
Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily:
1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself.
2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time.
MAKE SURE YOU FOLLOW ME SO THAT YOU DONT MISS TRADE SIGNALS, GET THE LATEST SL AND TP LEVELS, AND FOLLOW THE TRADE PLAY OUT IN REAL TIME!
DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR.
Feel free to ask any questions, and please let me know how I can improve these daily posts / what you would like me to include in these daily posts, thanks.
- Price Action: Bitcoin saw some volatile price action yesterday, with new ATHs and flash selloffs, creating panic and fomo. Many traders in the chat were in a state of panic. We have established a new ATH @ $29.3K, breaking the previous ATH @ $28.4K. We are in dangerous and volatile territory as price is just as likely to pump as it is to a major correction. The best way to protect yourself is to only trade high probability trade setups, which I provide on a daily basis.
- Chart Patterns: We seem to be moving up in an upwards trending channel, so we will need to pay attention when price reaches either the top or the bottom of the channel.
- Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the highs @ $29.3K and the 200MAs @ $28K. Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time.
TRADE(S) RECAP
There wasn't a trade yesterday, but 3 days ago we had a successful trade that gave us a 3:1 Risk Reward Ratio, meaning you could've made 3BTC for every BTC risked.
TRADE SETUPS
Below are three potential trade setups. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal.
Long Trade Setup #1: Breakout and Continuation
To open a long position, we are waiting for price to break resistance, move back down to test previous resistance as support and then bounce back up.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $29.3K with force, creating space between the price and $29.3K, falls back down to $29.3K and bounce back up.
2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle)
2.1 Ideally Engulfing / Break candle has a large candle body with small wicks
2.2 Ideally Engulfing /Break candle closes near the highs of the candle
3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar, or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks)
4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink)
Long Trade Setup #2: Retest and Continuation (200MAs)
To open a long position, we are waiting for price to retrace back down to test the 200MAs and then continue moving up.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price needs to move back down to the 200MAs and bounce. 200MAs are currently sitting at ~$28K, but will move as price moves.
2. Candlestick Pattern: A bullish candlestick pattern such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pinbar, or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large red candle followed by multiple green candles that eventually close above the open/high of the large red candle)
3. Volume: Above average volume on the bullish engulfing candle, pinbar, or on any of the multiple green candles that eventually break the red candle (ideally on the candle that breaks)
4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (changing from red to pink)
Short Trade Setup: False Breakout
To open a short position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal resistance @ $29.3K and then fall back down.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price breaks above the high of $29.3K and then rapidly falls below $29.3K, forming a bull trap
2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakout candlestick (candle close above $29.3K) followed by a breakdown candlestick (candle close below $29.3K)
2.1 Ideally breakout and breakdown candlesticks are consecutive candles, but can also have a few candles in between the two
2.2 Ideally the breakdown candle has a large candle body with very small wicks
3. Volume: Above average volume ( volume above the average volume line) on both breakout candle and breakdown candle, ideally the breakdown candle's volume is a local high
4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less positive (color changing from dark green to light green)
ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS
Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management.
TRADE MANAGEMENT
Entry: We typically enter on the candle close of the entry signal candle.
Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks.
Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but I will also post a few take profit targets for you to scale out of the trade.
Adjustments: You can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to adjust/manage the trade depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with.
HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS
Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily:
1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself.
2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time.
MAKE SURE YOU FOLLOW ME SO THAT YOU DONT MISS TRADE SIGNALS, GET THE LATEST SL AND TP LEVELS, AND FOLLOW THE TRADE PLAY OUT IN REAL TIME!
DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR.
Feel free to ask any questions, and please let me know how I can improve these daily posts / what you would like me to include in these daily posts, thanks.
Comment:
Price closed below the channel and flash crashed. Didn’t have time to give a trade entry.
Comment:
Let’s see if we bounce here for us to take a long. Need a close above 28.6k with confirmations for me to be comfortable calling a long trade. Could happen within the hour.
Trade active:
High risk btc short scalp entry.
Comment:
Entry: market price
SL: above high of 28465
TP: 2:1 risk reward ratio
SL: above high of 28465
TP: 2:1 risk reward ratio
Trade closed: target reached:
Our btc short trade reached our take profit. Congratulations to those who took the trade live with me for a 2:1 risk reward. This makes it 10+ winning trades in a row. Though I’m not sure how many people took the trade with me given it’s New Years haha.
