3 Possible scenarios:
1. A test does not come for the foreseeable future, this would indicate an unsustainable rally to retracements .618,.702 and .786. (20%)
2. The 20W MA is tested in the next 2 weeks. This test fails and we see a weekly close below the 20W MA. This would cause a move back into the recent range, with the likelihood that new lows will be seen. (35%)
3. The 20W MA is tested in the next 2 weeks. This tests holds and is confirmed as support. This provides strong momentum that would likely see new local highs in place. After the 0.5(46,850) there is air up until the .618(51,100). (45%)
This chart depicts a Long position based on the 3rd outcome having the highest probability of ~45%
The test may well wick down to the top of our recent range (41,300), meaning the stop/loss is placed slightly lower at 39,785.
This test will be extremely important for price action in the short/medium term.
Narrative will also form rapidly, regardless of which way the test follows.
Be careful, is expected to increase exponentially around the key area. Leverage is not advised.