I try to predict the medium-term movement by just a pattern and with the crossing area! This pattern is the "Inside bar". The itself consists of two candles, the first candle has to be bigger than the next one and the second candle range can't reach over the previous candle lows and highs (hopefully You understand :D). If an asset makes a breakout from the candle range it would indicate the further direction! The crossing area consists of major down-trendline and the curve support!
Currently, on the weekly chart, we have an pattern and at the moment we have a range above the previous week candle ( range has marked with the orange area) This will show that we have a nice momentum to go upwards but is it enough!? Let's find out!
The curve support!
I started to draw this curve support from Januar 15 low point and as You can see, it has held Bitcoin' through the time pretty nicely, multiple touches and multiple rejections allows to draw this line almost precisely. Over a month now, every week we have touched this red support line and every time it has bounced upwards so, a pretty significant level what You have to watch if the price starts to fall through the line.
Price structure wise we have also good signs. Since August the price has started to make new higher lows (HL). This will show that the buyers are earlier in the market and they buy those low tips higher than previously.
To mention the target then it is around $7300-$7400. There are the previous and the previous higher low. This area plays a significant role in the long-term wise because since 'Idontknowwhen' the Bitcoin' price has made lower highs and THERE(!) is the opportunity to make new higher high which is a massive sign for further movement and that's why I think to reach there we need a hell of a power.
Where comes this power?
As I mentioned in my last trading idea, we get a movement very soon (probably this week). WHY? Because of the crossing area. This week is the last week which fits between the curve support and the major down-trendline plus we have an candle which will guide us to the explosion if we start to make a breakout from the candle range (actually we already have a breakout but we don't have a confirmation from the candle close, even 1h candle has not closed above the orange box).
The medium-term targets with direction confirmations!
EUREKA - we have two scenarios! :)
Bullish Target at $7400, signs:
1. We are above the curve support line which has held us multiple times
2. We have the higher low market structure
3. We have a shorter time frame bias
4. Altcoins makes some moves upwards to support BTC' movement
Now we need a break out from the major down-trendline and the possibility to make a higher high is strongly on the table!
Bearish target around $5000:
1. The first sign is a close below the curve support
2. A break below the candle range
3. Third confirmation is a close below the super strong at $6125(8 times touched and rejected)
4. In the bigger picture, we are still in the massive downtrend.
So, a candle close below the mentioned levels and we are ready to go down to the lower levels, TO THE $5000!
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When I say: "I'm on the market" then it would be mean I see the bullish BTC
When I say: "I'm out of the market" then it would be mean that we are on the danger zone and the BTC direction is unclear!
Currently, I'm on the market! :)
Also, we have a small golden cross between 50 and 200 EMA! Currently and technically bulls have a control over the bears!
I’m on the market!
Currently, the price makes moves and it has broken below the all-important EMA's, it has reached the curve support line and the March low level which also should start to work as a support but it is on the Fibonacci golden ratio retracement level at 62%. If we get a candle close below the mentioned levels then it would be a first sign that the bullish momentum is gone and our next major supports are the round number $6,500 and the strong support area at $6,460.
At the moment altcoins take this little hit also but nothing remarkable.
Just in case you should be out of the market and if we see a bounce upwards from the mentioned levels then it would be a good sign because currently, the price is still in the higher low area and price structure wise nothing catastrophic, watch those levels (curve support, round number and the blue line as a strong support) and if the price breaks below those then definitely stay out and wait for some better opportunities to enter again!
Partially, I'm out of the market!
So, a pretty nice crossing area and currently it held us nicely!
Added some partial positions for tiny profit opportunity but be cautious!
The strong support/resistance is when it touches it fastly only once, as it is now but let's see!
Currently, I'm on the market!
We have break below from several criteria!
But this move (Hammer)comes from pretty important levels so, we could assume that this is more like the hammer than Hanging man but let's see how today's candle close, a little bit early to say it yet!
All the best! ;)
Best to You too!