Bitcoin: What Historical Drawdown in a Bear Market?
Since its all-time high at $126,000 reached on October 6, Bitcoin has been following a series of corrective sessions. This pullback raises a key question: is it merely a consolidation within a bull market, or the beginning of a true bear market?
First, if the cycle really ended on Monday, October 6, this would still align with the classic 4-year timing cycle, with a duration that fits within the multi-criteria average (see my correspondence table below) of previous cycles.
At this stage, the downtrend is not confirmed, as key supports — notably the weekly Ichimoku cloud — have not been broken. This level marks the decisive boundary between a standard cycle correction and a deeper reversal.
As long as the price remains above the Kumo, the bull cycle that began in 2022 remains structurally valid. Historically, Bitcoin only enters a bear market when weekly candles close below the cloud, along with the chikou also falling below price. Such a configuration would signal a durable deterioration in momentum for the coming months.
If this zone were to give way, then shifting to a full bear-market framework would become relevant. To estimate a potential bottom, the most useful tool remains the drawdown indicator from ATHs, which measures the percentage decline from the previous all-time high. The chart clearly shows a long-term trend: drawdown bottoms form along a rising diagonal since 2011, while the intensity of declines gradually decreases cycle after cycle.
Historical numbers confirm this:
• 2011: –93%
• 2015: –86%
• 2018: –84%
• 2022: –77%
This gradual reduction reflects market maturation and increasing market capitalization. Extrapolating this trend places the theoretical next trough between –70% and –76%. This is also the zone highlighted on the chart as long-term historical support.
Applying these percentages to the $126,000 peak yields:
• –50% → $63,000
• –65% → $45,000
• –70% → $37,800
• –73% → $34,000
• –76% → $30,200
These levels therefore form a probable bottom range in the still-unconfirmed scenario of a bear market. They also correspond to major technical zones frequently observed at cycle junctions.
Finally, the average duration of Bitcoin bear markets — traditionally around 12 months — suggests a theoretical bottom around late 2026, if the October 2025 top were indeed a cycle peak.
In summary:
We are not in a bear market as long as major technical supports hold. The market is now clearly at a technical crossroads. But if a breakdown occurs, historical drawdown patterns suggest a statistical bottom between $40,000 and $60,000, within a timeframe of roughly one year.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
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All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
First, if the cycle really ended on Monday, October 6, this would still align with the classic 4-year timing cycle, with a duration that fits within the multi-criteria average (see my correspondence table below) of previous cycles.
At this stage, the downtrend is not confirmed, as key supports — notably the weekly Ichimoku cloud — have not been broken. This level marks the decisive boundary between a standard cycle correction and a deeper reversal.
As long as the price remains above the Kumo, the bull cycle that began in 2022 remains structurally valid. Historically, Bitcoin only enters a bear market when weekly candles close below the cloud, along with the chikou also falling below price. Such a configuration would signal a durable deterioration in momentum for the coming months.
If this zone were to give way, then shifting to a full bear-market framework would become relevant. To estimate a potential bottom, the most useful tool remains the drawdown indicator from ATHs, which measures the percentage decline from the previous all-time high. The chart clearly shows a long-term trend: drawdown bottoms form along a rising diagonal since 2011, while the intensity of declines gradually decreases cycle after cycle.
Historical numbers confirm this:
• 2011: –93%
• 2015: –86%
• 2018: –84%
• 2022: –77%
This gradual reduction reflects market maturation and increasing market capitalization. Extrapolating this trend places the theoretical next trough between –70% and –76%. This is also the zone highlighted on the chart as long-term historical support.
Applying these percentages to the $126,000 peak yields:
• –50% → $63,000
• –65% → $45,000
• –70% → $37,800
• –73% → $34,000
• –76% → $30,200
These levels therefore form a probable bottom range in the still-unconfirmed scenario of a bear market. They also correspond to major technical zones frequently observed at cycle junctions.
Finally, the average duration of Bitcoin bear markets — traditionally around 12 months — suggests a theoretical bottom around late 2026, if the October 2025 top were indeed a cycle peak.
In summary:
We are not in a bear market as long as major technical supports hold. The market is now clearly at a technical crossroads. But if a breakdown occurs, historical drawdown patterns suggest a statistical bottom between $40,000 and $60,000, within a timeframe of roughly one year.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.