Well, it's been a looooooong and boring time since I last posted here about BTSBTC, and I guess we are finally at a meaningful point. Looking at the chart, it's not a question of wether or not the fib channel is valid or not, because it obviously is. The million dollar question is: will we stay inside the fib channel or not.
If we stay inside the channel, we might very well look up the center line again which would mean a pretty steep drop. I know a lot of people think the only way is up at the moment, but I'm not so sure. We had something that looked like a 3-wave up over the last 2 days, but volume is so low it's almost non-existent, so I would hardly call that impulsive.
In the meantime king Bitcoin is also low on volume and moving ever more sideways. Don't fall into the trap of thinking there are only 2 options, a huge burst up or down. There is also the option of remaining boringly sideways for a lot longer. Guess what that would do the alts market? Alt season or a slow withering away of interest?
the channel you have drawn looks like is playing as a support now. how low do you think it could go from here?
thomasvandenabeele
⋅
@umerijaz81, I'm waiting for a bit more clarity in the market, given the recent volatility, but I'll be honest: my gut feeling says we go down to 1050 sats. I'm still short at this moment.
My best recommendation at the moment is to set your buy ladder from 850 up to 1200, with 75% in the 1000-1100 range, and wait for a higher high. We are still only putting in lower high after lower high - that will be my first signal to prepare a switch to long.
thomasvandenabeele
⋅
Sheesh, how much more sideways can a market go? As I've said before often, everyone is one the sideline, waited for other people to make a big move and then jump onboard. Of course, if everybody's just waiting, nobody makes that move, and nothing happens.
So in that context, the fib channel has been broken on the upside, but without any significant volume or impulsiveness. So, yes, we're breaking the channel, but on the other we are still making lower highs in the process... In a way, this was to be expected: every move in the crypto market is screaming "undecidedness". At a certain point, a significant enough amount people will start saying "screw this, I'm not waiting any longer, I'm buying / selling". A breakout or a bore-out, let's say. Wether this move will be bearish or bullish is anyone's guess at the moment. Given the lack of volume, I wouldn't expect a bullish outcome, unless some really positive news comes out about the cryptosphere in general.