German 10Y Bond yield is trading ard 0,20 %, actually last week it even dipped below 20 bps. What a big love! But does it woth to love this baby so much? In the long run I think no one really believes buying Bund makes sense as a positive real rate investment. In short term of course "investors" are forced to buy it by regulators. But for me tecgnically this looks extremely overbought, with some developing bearish divergences, which means no value to hold longs at these levels.
Weekly:
- Perfect bullish trend channel, where price reached the top 2 weeks ago. Since then we had a lower high last week. Will is print another lower high this week?
- Within the big bullish trend a Wedge is possibly forming too
- Ichimoku is long term bullish, supports are quickly coming higher: Tenkan at 161,80, Kijun at 159,40 and and Senkou B at 156,20.
- Heikin-Ashi is bullish -> watch candle and haDelta development this week.
- EWO is bullish, but wave strength has reached approximately same height as one year ago. Market can not keep this momentum for too long.
Daily:
- Price is all over the roof. Short term maybe overbought. Mkt trades ard steeper short term trend line. Should it break below, a retest to Kijun could bring a healthy correction. Price has not touched Kijun Sen since December/2015
- Heikin-Ashi has signals of possible negative divergence via haDelta! Last two days spike was enough only for a lower high! haDelta/SMA3 is turning lower again.
- EWO probably had its top too.
All together we may still see some forced floating above 164, but it is not a good level to buy, nor a good technical structure to hold longs (especially multi- leveraged longs).
As volatility (ATR) also started to decline, maybe it worths a try to set up some (0,5 unit) counter trend short position too.
For this you can add 4H timeframe to make a more precise strategy on entry.
Weekly:
- Perfect bullish trend channel, where price reached the top 2 weeks ago. Since then we had a lower high last week. Will is print another lower high this week?
- Within the big bullish trend a Wedge is possibly forming too
- Ichimoku is long term bullish, supports are quickly coming higher: Tenkan at 161,80, Kijun at 159,40 and and Senkou B at 156,20.
- Heikin-Ashi is bullish -> watch candle and haDelta development this week.
- EWO is bullish, but wave strength has reached approximately same height as one year ago. Market can not keep this momentum for too long.
Daily:
- Price is all over the roof. Short term maybe overbought. Mkt trades ard steeper short term trend line. Should it break below, a retest to Kijun could bring a healthy correction. Price has not touched Kijun Sen since December/2015
- Heikin-Ashi has signals of possible negative divergence via haDelta! Last two days spike was enough only for a lower high! haDelta/SMA3 is turning lower again.
- EWO probably had its top too.
All together we may still see some forced floating above 164, but it is not a good level to buy, nor a good technical structure to hold longs (especially multi- leveraged longs).
As volatility (ATR) also started to decline, maybe it worths a try to set up some (0,5 unit) counter trend short position too.
For this you can add 4H timeframe to make a more precise strategy on entry.
