Let's face it: whales, orcas, dolphins, sharks... etc are much more financially educated! period. Those crypto-economy engineers are playing with the volatility rules of math, while 90% of the TV readers have no clue what does volatility means! The crypto economy comes from two words: cryptography (APPLIED MATH) and economics (MONEY).
People tend to forget the “economic” part of this equation. In the world of math&money there is no place for philosophy and classic TA. This is a data-driven world. Crypto Data never sleep, data streaming 24/7, data creates a metadata, meta creates the logic, logic establishing intelligence, intelligence & knowledge enabling strategies!
https://ibb.co/mEhfhS Shown above are annualised 'Sortino Ratios' based on the previous 90 days of log returns calculated from volume weighted average daily prices. See this paper for a more detailed description of the Sortino ratio.
In fact, 2017 will never come back. Do your math! Use the right data in your analysis, crypto related indicators, proper metrics, crypto indices and the computations adopted for the crypto economic reality of 2018!!!
ibb.co/exNVhS Shown above are daily BTC log returns calculated from volume-weighted average prices. A time-series model is fit to the set of returns and the projection along with 95% confidence interval (orange) is shown. The projection can be thought of as a stochastic process where 95% of the trajectories lie within the orange bars. The time-series model is attempting to fit an autoregressive or moving average model. In other words, the model assumes that past returns are indicative of future returns.
Buy low sell high. The rest is an attempt to mask the inability to do that, sortino or no sortino. If 2018 is a short year for bitcoin, you need to sell high. Log returns of 1 something negative percent are with in statistical error. You cannot base a bias on a statistical error.
Would you risk your bitcoin portfolio on -1.5 percent going short? I am doubtful.
Would you risk your bitcoin portfolio on -1.5 percent going short? I am doubtful.