vlad.adrian
Short

CADCHF - Perfect swing signals

FX:CADCHF   Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc
484 13 9
Please zoom in a bit, it might be hard to see.

If you have a look at the weekly chart you will see what a great downtrend this is. The best way to profit from a downtrend like this is to swing trade on positive corrections. Analysing closely, I have spotted that every leg up or down gave a combination of warning signals in advance.

Each pattern is labeled so I won't go through them, but let's take all the instruments one by one.

1) Fibonacci ratios - As you can see, every down leg stops at either 127% or 161.8% of the previous correction.
2) RSI - There are 3 things to look here for. Most important, are the spikes over 50 level. Those spikes signal the end of the positive correction. Secondly, when the RSI is oversold the downleg has ended, and it's time to exit. Thirdly, bullish divergences call for corrections, so again, time to exit.
3) EMA Wave - the wave gives us the main dirrection and also a dynamic support and resistance area. Look how all corrections rejected from the wave or made false breakouts over it.
4) Envelopes - When price deviates too much from the EMAs and touch the down line of the envelope , the move is over-extended and it's time to cover the short.
5) Candlestick patterns - I always use them for timing. A candle stick is never enough on its own, but it's great for timing.

If taken one by one, none of these signals would mean anything, but look how they all happen at the same time. I honestly haven't seen so perfect timing in signals until now (not that I've been around for too long...).

I believe the downtrend is going to continue. I will want to take some profits at 0.78000 because thing can always change and there might be a double bottom there. Second target is at one of the two fib ratios. When close to each of these targets, I will look for the signals mentioned above.
Nice to see you playing Forex :)
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vlad.adrian PRO Technician
2 years ago
It's just an extra, I'm still a stock and indices fan :D
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Yep, right on on this one. I went short on Friday on the pullback to the EMA around 0.81. Only problem with CHF longs is the -ve overnight swaps that eat into the trades
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vlad.adrian PRO justatrader
2 years ago
Thank you! I had no ideea about the overnight rate, I didn't check it out yet.
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The bearish trend remains play, but i suggest watching this resistance carefully,
snapshot
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Technician TOP Technician
2 years ago
in play*, also strong bullish divergence. I would cover any short on a break above it.
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vlad.adrian PRO Technician
2 years ago
yes, but I think the bullish divergence was covered by this correction. Anyway, first take profit is at the previous low so in case it decides to double bottom there is still some money to be made :D
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fxtechtrader
2 years ago
Great chart, thanks, what parameters did you use for the Envelope ?
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vlad.adrian PRO fxtechtrader
2 years ago
Thank you. 34 exponential with 2.50 deviation
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My only concern is on the weekly it is showing a morning star with a confirmed bullish reversal candle. It is also in a demand area on the weekly from a previous level of support and I am sure the short interest is high. Will be on my watch-list though. Thanks
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vlad.adrian PRO paulyberndt
2 years ago
check this out. It's not the first time there was such a signal
snapshot

except for the first time, when a shooting star followed the long day, after all other long days price continued to fall, so pattern reliability isn't that great, but ur right, it's still a bullish pattern
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FaultyKid paulyberndt
2 years ago
And all CAD Date forecast for next week is higher then previous releases, I think this would be a nice catalyst for a long move here too.
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mustard
2 years ago
A great example of a strong bear trend, but weekly shows a potential bounce after hitting previous support at 2011 low, caution needed.
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