CAD/CHF. Will the downtrend continue?

FX:CADCHF   Canadian Dollar/Swiss Franc
CAD/CHF tested maximums on 28-th October and reversed down. We think that we are dealing with the correction Elliott wave . Highest highs that appeared on 7-th and 19-th November let us draw a trend line , which is heading down. On 22-nd November the pair tested the resistance line for the second time. There is the possibility that downtrend will continue. Traditionally we will use two types of analysis – technical and fundamental

Technical analysis
Horizontal support level is approximately situated on 0,74300.
On 1D TF trend indicators are telling about further uptrend movement - MACD line reversed up; Williams %R broke the lower line and is moving in the working zone
In our opinion the pair finished forming the 4-th correction wave of the 5 waves structure. If this scenario is correct, the currency should not break 0,75000 up and we will see further correction down.

Fundamental analysis
The BoC’s governor Poloz stated that the policy today is enough simulative ( BoC is not going to decrease the interest rate). This news was good for the Canadian currency. But CAD/CHF didn’t react by the strong growth. Generally we think that the Switzerland’s frank, as well as the Japanese yen will continue being favourites on fears that there will be recession in the global economy next year.
The most important news in Switzerland next week is national GDP. Economists expect that GDP will be +0,2% in the 3-rd quarter. We don’t expect big fluctuations on this new due to retail sales, which were rising in Q3 and the trade balance.

Summary: we expect that Switzerland’s frank will continue strengthening against Canadian dollar with the target 0,74300.


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