I've been keeping an eye on this pair for some time now, especially since it broke down and stayed below the long-term range set after the 2015 crash.
We're now nearing an important point - the 2015 depeg low, which might vary based on your broker. In my experience, Forex.com offers more reliable data, showing a depeg low just under 0.61.
It's pretty interesting to see that all the CHF pairs are shaping up similarly, forming bottoming patterns as they get closer to their respective depeg lows. Even CHFJPY is hitting a significant point at 170.
With everything that's been happening globally, CHF has been a go-to safe haven in recent years. But looking at these pairs, I'm thinking there's a big correction coming soon, with a lot of CHF selling across the board.
Here's my plan for capitalizing on this with this particular pair, as I'm expecting another dip towards the depeg low.
On the daily charts, you can see the price slowly edging down, with a notable drop at the end of last month. This happened during the holiday season, when markets can be a bit erratic, showing spikes due to volatility. (check out the image below)
If you zoom in on the weekly chart, there's a clear falling wedge pattern forming as the market grinds down. Each new low seems to attract buyers, hinting at a potential shift and weariness in selling.
My strategy for this pair is straightforward. I'll be watching my TRFX indicator on the daily charts from now on, building a big position every time the indicator gives me a signal at or below the current price.
My first target is the 0.68 resistance, the previous bottom of the long-term range. I'm expecting a bit of a reaction there, then a push back up into the range, aiming for the top at 0.74.
To confirm this final target, we'd need a strong weekly or monthly close above 0.68.
Given that all these pairs, including the CHF futures chart (image below), are showing similar patterns at key resistance points (depeg high), this could turn out to be one of the best trades of the year. But it's crucial to wait for the right entry signals.
I'll keep you posted as these positions develop. Hope you found this interesting!
It's still possible I think, we need wait several months I think
WalterMoon
⋅
Nice technical analysis of CADCHF, I like it
MASTERPIECE10
⋅
I definitely agree!
BKTradingAcademy
⋅
Thanks for the quality analysis!
Setupsfx_
⋅
Great idea totally agree with you
MyCryptoParadise_Nathan
⋅
Your mention of CHF as a traditional safe haven is crucial, especially considering the current global economic climate. A shift in this sentiment could indeed lead to significant selling.
LegionQ8
⋅
Maybe you are right, lets see in few weeks
TheFxAce
⋅
@LegionQ8, its just my perspective and then waiting for the correct entry signals
HippoTrading
⋅
nice analysis 👍
PrimeTrading
⋅
Brilliant idea, brilliant trade! It has much more upwards potential -> 0.70 first target, then 0.74