CHF/JPY, SUGAR/USD, EUR/CAD and CAD/JPY on watch for me today.
Good morning guys and girls,
I hope you're well.
Before I explain what I'll be looking for today let me just say before I forget that I made a slight mistake with my forecasting yesterday morning. By that I mean that what I said I'd be looking for from each pair beside the bullet points which I list beneath each currency pair subheading in my forecast description was actually what I said I'd be looking for from the pairs which I had on watch the previous day, which is why you might have noticed that what I said I was looking for was at odds with what I said I'd be looking for in the callout bubble descriptions on my screenshots. As you may or may not have guessed I use a template for the text in my forecast descriptions and I changed the currency pair subheadings to reflect the pairs that I was looking for yesterday, but I forgot to change the bullet points beneath them before pasting them over to TradingView, hence why the latter were my entry requirements for the pairs which I had on watch the previous day. Thankfully there will be no such problems this morning.
Moving on and I'm currently running at just over +1.5% profit with my EUR/CAD trade. Whereas I would normally lock in profit above the highs I locked in profit more aggressively just above our most recent swing low as price approached the bottom of structure where a reversal is much more likely and although it does look like a tight bull flag has formed to push back up it's important to note that price never quite broke our previous low on the daily chart and that the bull flag is becoming very wide relative to the impulse up which preceded it, making perhaps a slow trickle down to this liquidity point more likely. So I have EUR/CAD on watch again today for this reasons for a potential buy if price does break our stand out daily low. If it does and we got a strong one hour close below it I will lock in profit just above the daily low and then be ready to flip my bias if I'm tagged out for around +2% profit in anticipation of a subsequent tight bull flag back above it which I'll be looking to get long on the break of and of course if that doesn't happen and we either slowly or quickly start to push lower then with a bit of luck and if I manage it well then I'll still be in the short trade which I'm currently in and this is why I constantly talk about the importance of remaining neutral in trading so that you don't become too attached to a bias.
With regards to my potential long trade on CAD/JPY I'm just being a little bit careful where the tight one hour bull flag that's formed is concerned. a) Because there have been two subsequent one hour corrections since the move up which broke and retraced back above our previous daily low and b) Because the Canadian dollar is trickling up against several currency pairs across the board making some kind of sell off more likely which would make it more likely that I could be tagged in and tagged out of this trade. So what I'll be doing is waiting to see if price will give us an ever so slightly flatter bull flag, that it so say one where the gradient of the highs at the top of it doesn't have quite as much of a descent to it before I look to get long on the break of it, especially since it's also starting to become wider and wider relative to the impulse up which preceded it.
But without further ado today's forecast is listed below.
Have a great day and a great weekend and I'll be back on Monday morning with another one of these forecasts!
CHF/JPY:
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
SUGAR/USD:
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/CAD:
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
CAD/JPY:
• If price impulses up, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag.
• If price only pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll again be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll again be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
I hope you're well.
Before I explain what I'll be looking for today let me just say before I forget that I made a slight mistake with my forecasting yesterday morning. By that I mean that what I said I'd be looking for from each pair beside the bullet points which I list beneath each currency pair subheading in my forecast description was actually what I said I'd be looking for from the pairs which I had on watch the previous day, which is why you might have noticed that what I said I was looking for was at odds with what I said I'd be looking for in the callout bubble descriptions on my screenshots. As you may or may not have guessed I use a template for the text in my forecast descriptions and I changed the currency pair subheadings to reflect the pairs that I was looking for yesterday, but I forgot to change the bullet points beneath them before pasting them over to TradingView, hence why the latter were my entry requirements for the pairs which I had on watch the previous day. Thankfully there will be no such problems this morning.
Moving on and I'm currently running at just over +1.5% profit with my EUR/CAD trade. Whereas I would normally lock in profit above the highs I locked in profit more aggressively just above our most recent swing low as price approached the bottom of structure where a reversal is much more likely and although it does look like a tight bull flag has formed to push back up it's important to note that price never quite broke our previous low on the daily chart and that the bull flag is becoming very wide relative to the impulse up which preceded it, making perhaps a slow trickle down to this liquidity point more likely. So I have EUR/CAD on watch again today for this reasons for a potential buy if price does break our stand out daily low. If it does and we got a strong one hour close below it I will lock in profit just above the daily low and then be ready to flip my bias if I'm tagged out for around +2% profit in anticipation of a subsequent tight bull flag back above it which I'll be looking to get long on the break of and of course if that doesn't happen and we either slowly or quickly start to push lower then with a bit of luck and if I manage it well then I'll still be in the short trade which I'm currently in and this is why I constantly talk about the importance of remaining neutral in trading so that you don't become too attached to a bias.
With regards to my potential long trade on CAD/JPY I'm just being a little bit careful where the tight one hour bull flag that's formed is concerned. a) Because there have been two subsequent one hour corrections since the move up which broke and retraced back above our previous daily low and b) Because the Canadian dollar is trickling up against several currency pairs across the board making some kind of sell off more likely which would make it more likely that I could be tagged in and tagged out of this trade. So what I'll be doing is waiting to see if price will give us an ever so slightly flatter bull flag, that it so say one where the gradient of the highs at the top of it doesn't have quite as much of a descent to it before I look to get long on the break of it, especially since it's also starting to become wider and wider relative to the impulse up which preceded it.
But without further ado today's forecast is listed below.
Have a great day and a great weekend and I'll be back on Monday morning with another one of these forecasts!
CHF/JPY:
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
SUGAR/USD:
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/CAD:
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
CAD/JPY:
• If price impulses up, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight one hour flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag.
• If price only pushes up to and ideally just above our rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll again be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll again be looking to get short with a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.