CADJPY – Final Diagonal Before the Drop!

We’ve been tracking CADJPY for years, and price continues to follow Elliott Wave structure with precision.

The major decline in 2024 completed wave (1) and triggered a higher-timeframe correction. Since then, price has developed a clear W–X–Y structure.
- W topped in late 2024
- X completed after a clean ABC decline
- Price is now in wave Y, unfolding as a zigzag (5-3-5)

Within Y, waves (A) and (B) have completed, and price is now pushing through the final 5-wave structure of wave (C). This final diagonal is what will complete the entire W–X–Y correction before the next major bearish leg begins.

Our focus is now on the ending diagonal forming in wave (C). Once this diagonal structure breaks, it will confirm that wave Y has completed and that the higher-timeframe downtrend is ready to resume.

Trade Idea:
Entry: Break of the diagonal
Stops: Above the break candle / above the final high of the diagonal

Targets:
TP1: 101.50 (1200 pips)
TP2: 95.00 (1850 pips)
Optional runner: Keep a portion open for long-term continuation

Goodluck and as always, trade safe!

See below for our previous CADJPY analysis:

Swing 1:

Swing 2:

Swing 3:

Swing 4: