On May 27th, 2014, I forecast two distinct bearish target, namely TG-1 = 93.830 and TG-2 = 93.746, using a much smaller timeframe (M5).
On a pure technical standpoint, the outlook appeared bearish, as price has surged into a EW Wave-3 completion, then retraced into a symmetrical a-b-c completion of Wave-4 (see top right of chart). What followed appeared to be a truncated Wave-5, whereby the termination of Point-5 remained below Point-3. In my predictive model, a significant reversal signal was already pointing to a probable reversal at this lesser level, relative to Point-3.
The underlying geometry that unfolded appeared as a wedge, with a rising median line that belonged to a much larger rising overhead resistance.
The trade opp was a tweeted first as a warning, calling the trader's attention to the conditional 93.987 value:
- " CAD vs JPY: Short opp within 93.868-93.987 range; look into your inds for confirm.; signal pending 93.987 not breached @TradingView "
Following are graphic links of the trade's deveopment:
1 - Set up: -
2 - Confirmation: -
3 - Price Recovers Into A Kiss Of Death ("KoD"); Targets Are Defined: -
4 - First Target Hit: -
5 - All Targets Hit: -
OVERALL: This was a nice and clean trading opp, from the EW truncated Wave-5 and its geometric wedge signal, to a repeat short at the completion of the KoD, and the clean definition/validation of each targets.
Cheers,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
More dead-on hits here: bit.ly/16JMnH8
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1 - Set up:
2 - Confirmation:
3 - Price Recovers Into A Kiss Of Death ("KoD"); Targets Are Defined:
4 - First Target Hit:
5 - All Targets Hit:
Cheers,
David Alcindor