4xForecaster
Short

High-Risk Trade; Three Potential Targets | $CAD $JPY #BOC #BOJ

FX:CADJPY   Canadian Dollar/Japanese Yen
395 10 5
Friends,

A high-risk trade coming thru, based on loose upside - I usually prefer more generous reward-to-risk ratios, but here it is:

Partial Entry @ 91.58
SL @ 93.442 - More junior traders might consider a rallying into 92.758 vicinity to play it safe
TP @ three potential levels, namely:

1 - TG-1 = 89.250 - 21 MAR 14, moderate probability

2 - TG-2 = 87.404 - 21 MAR 14, moderate probability

and

3 - TG-Lo = 85.762 - 21 MAR 2014, low probability


Each trader must know what his risk tolerance is before entering any trade. This means that before an entry is executed, a trader must know the percentage of risked fund potentially lost to the markets. This means knowing what your stop-loss ("SL") is before you even think about your profit target.

In this type of trade where the reward is too close to the value of loss, the higher-probability target might appear enticing, but the loss exposure might be too great for a trader with thinner accounts. Playing daily charts is also riskier, because the trader might not be willing to wait the time necessary for the trade to complete, especially when contemplating other potential trading opportunities in other charts/markets. So, here too, know who you are. Do not let the market (and that means people like me) help you find out what type of trader you are. You need to know this before you play - You will probably NOT have enough funds to learn from all the lessons encountered through mistakes.

Okay, enough soap-boxing.

Now, technically, the trade I chose is based on proprietary discoveries, although the entry is LATE, hence the riskier profile of this trade.

Looking at the H4 level, there is LESS chance of a rallying based on the negative divergence in RSI . However, this being Friday, enough fundamentals can trump technicals is not all events are discounted in such a tumultuous world stage, and over a week-end. We'll see what Sunday brings. I'll be back at work then.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & Market Forecasting


PS: If you liked the analysis, feel free to give it a "Thumb Up" and pass of a friendly referral to friends interested in occult market mathematics and hidden geometries. All targets generated are defined by non-price means, and confirmed by either proprietary patterns (Euclid, Janus, Great White, Deep Shark ), or other well known patterns. However, we concentrate mainly on Shark , 5-0 and occasional Bats, to complement our predictive analysis and forecasting - Cheers, David Alcindor.


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Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
Why would you want to short CAD when the weather is getting warmer and then hotter??? No more harsh cold that would continue to freeze Canada. I would rather trade long CAD.
Reply
Hi @alex.a - The predictive analysis and forecasting system I use is not a thermometer, a rain gauge, a snow flake detector, or a wind machine. In fact, it works independent of the natural elements.

However, what it is capable of discounting is whether institutional forces or the aggregate market participants are hinting at one direction or another.

At the moment, it is pointing down. Once it detects an early signal to the contrary, it will provide a sign, then a signal, then a confirmation. If this reflects the weather-induced behavior of market participants is one thing, but I can tell you that it works on a mind of its own. Rain or shine.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Fairly new, what does the E.A.G.L.E. zone stand for?
Reply
Hi @Evild0er - E.A.G.L.E is a counter-trend strategy, standing for Extremely AGgressive Level of Entry. When price hits that zone during an impulse move (here, a rally), a counter-trend move using the EAGLE strat would recommend the trader to enter within the pink zone.

- David Alcindor
Reply
Evild0er 4xForecaster
Cheers :)
Reply
Hi David, you already said it is a risky trade but did you change your mind or you are still at short? Your analysis 'usd/cad reversal' works perfectly and it seems cad is having good bids in these days but seems completed its correction and I think it is time to enter this trade? Thanks.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO muratsoydan
@muratsoydan - The long signal I received is a swing trade, and comes AGAINST the longer-term timeframe. While a swing trade is allowed to come to completion, it does not necessarily refute or contradict a longer term set-up.

I recommend the trader to use his discretion as far as timeframe choice, based on money management and risk tolerance.

I hope this answers your question.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
@muratsoydan - To be clearer, best is to terminate any trade when and if I produce a contrarian signal. This is not something I can say, but only imply, so that I do not provide any trading advice. All that is posted here and across TradingView and Tweeter is for educational purpose, letting trader see what others do.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
muratsoydan 4xForecaster
Hi David, thanks for your reply. Yes that's true right swings and waves are inevitable and it depends on which timeframe from you are looking from. Of course I do not take your charts as trading advices, for example I had many doubts about your eur/jpy forecast and did not take a position but your predictive analysis seems to be right by now. It is normal that all trades can't win all the time but this is one of the few who is going against for now and I just wanted to ask your system produced contrarian signal or not. Again, thanks for the advices, I'll keep in mind.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO muratsoydan
Yes, @muratsoydan. Thank you for your understanding and flexibility.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
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