This is one of those rare trades I put out that depend solely on a proprietary pattern I have named Janus. In fact, there are two of these patterns playing out on two separate timeframes.
If the pattern influence price towards their respective completion, then TG-Hi = 103.703 should be answered first, followed by TG-Lo = 97.158.
WOLFE WAVES & ELLIOTT WAVES ENDING DIAGONAL:
Highlighted in the chart in blue is the outline of Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves pattern. An Elliott Wave interpretation can certainly be drawn out of the geometry here as well, considering that the recent impulse can easily represent two degrees:
1 - A first, smaller one in which this triangle would complete in the way of a Wolfe Waves pattern, by simply seeking reversal off of its 1-4 Line projection (dotted line);
and
2 - A second, larger one in which price is expected to rally off of the smaller-degree triangle completion.
NOTE: TG-1 = 98.329 - 07 NOV 2014 defines the approximation of a probable support if and when price descends from its current geometric dwelling.
GHOST PATTERN UNDERWAY:
For the record, a non-price Ghost Trade pattern is also generated in support of the overall price action, in which a limited decline is anticipated, ahead of a rallying.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS & FORECASTING:
Here again, I have not made use of the predictive/forecasting model. I consider the model very reliable, whereas the proprietary geometries less reliable. For this reason, I would rate this trade as high-risk based on this lower probability level.
However, I was compelled to post this trade potential based on the past performance of this Janus Pattern - This is a purely academic exercise and not a trade recommendation.
INVALIDATION CONDITION:
I would consider above trading plan invalid if and once price reached TG-Lo = 97.158 before reaching TG-Hi = 103.703.
An early invalidation could be generated if and once price commits to a sustained decline below TG-1 = 98.329.
OVERALL:
Two timeframes have posted two same prop patterns, named Janus. The expectation here is to see a geometric resolution out of a complex market geometry named Wolfe Waves (author: Bill Wolfe). Typically, price tends to resume its initial trend after it validates the pattern's 1-4 Line, thus moving in the expected direction of TG-Hi, representing a large frame prop pattern completion, and potentially repulsing price towards a lower target, representing a smaller completion of the same prop pattern.
Have a fantastic week-end.
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA
I realize that advanced traders may be conflicted when confronting the Elliott Wave's Ending Diagonal ("ED") and Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves patterns ("WW").
Per Elliott Wave Principles, the Ending Diagonal will rise off of a 5-point anatomy expressed in similar points as the Wolfe Waves pattern would.
The difference is that in the case of an ED, price will tend to return to a level that is already defined by its base, namely Point-2.
In contrast, in the case of a WW, price will ignore Point-2 and will continue to seek validation at the 1-4 Line projection - For this example, simply Google the queries "4xForecaster Wolfe Waves" and you might see how the recent EURUSD, as well as many other such cases, were able to illustrate this significant difference.
For this advantageous reason, although I try to simplify my analysis with EWP wave counts, I will still incorporate a WW pattern in the analysis, to imply that price is NOT likely to end at Point-2, but instead is expected to stubbornly seek validation of the 1-4 Line.
In the case of the recent EURUSD, you will understand why I had to re-define a bearish target given this explanation, as price was not so mindful of the predictive/forecasting model's levels of probable reversal, as much as it remains on a mission to hit and reverse off of the pattern's 1-4 Line.
So, overall, I would say that with all due respect to Elliotticians out there (and I certainly do not consider myself one of them, but rather a myopic wave counter), I would say that better and more reliable patterns exist outside of the EWP's cosmology of market geometries.
In any case, I hope that I have stirred your interest in the Wolfe Waves pattern. Again, this CADJPY only offers a pretext to talk technical analysis here, in relation to well-established advanced patterns such as the ED and EW geometries. In the background, there are proprietary patterns such as my Janus Pattern (along with other ones, such as the Great White, the Euclidean Pattern, and a rubric of other occult geometries), all this to say that this fantastic field of technical analysis, in which inner folds of occult geometries await their own unveiling, should keep this and the larger technical community busy over the years to come.
Here is a clue where to start: Ignore price. Read up sacred geometries. Numerology won't hurt. And lots of facetime with your screen.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
4xForecaster
⋅
26 JAN 2015 - Trade Opp:
From Twitter:
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CADJPY favors rally per TL; Background #elliottwave Expanded Flat lurks:
Does this mean you are also bullish global equities? Since a decline of Yen means higher highs for global equities.
4xForecaster
⋅
Hello @jonatsgonats - As a technician, I am not well-versed enough in intermarket analysis to figure this out. One person I would definitely turn to is Ashraf Laidi (Twitter: @alaidi). His book on intermarket analysis is a grea resource as well - David
johnmad
⋅
Hi David ,
I can see both you Janus Patterns and have been eying for some time in my predictive analysis , as your Wolfe Wave indicates a decline at first ,the Small Janus is a more likely point of reversal to then complete the Big Janus , also watching the Negative Divergence created now in RSI and as i kept monitoring RSI i have back tested my finding there is at first a 50 pip decline for for my target 1, this strategy and finding i named he JM50 Trade which i would like to share with you as you have shared your trading strategy and findings with me .
Yes the Gost Pattern stands out like a sore thumb and what a great tool is that to have in your trading analysis.
All i can say is this is a great trade call and your analysis is precise , absolutely fantastic .
4xForecaster
⋅
Hi, John - I am glad you noticed. Thanks - David
4xForecaster
⋅
NOTE: This is by far the most convoluted analysis, and I realize this. I am not too keen to trade patterns without having the predictive/forecasting model at the foreground, but the patterns jumped to sight - I simply had to bring this trade opp up as a mere academic exercise.
Trade using your own due diligence, applying your own customary analysis - David
I realize that advanced traders may be conflicted when confronting the Elliott Wave's Ending Diagonal ("ED") and Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves patterns ("WW").
Per Elliott Wave Principles, the Ending Diagonal will rise off of a 5-point anatomy expressed in similar points as the Wolfe Waves pattern would.
The difference is that in the case of an ED, price will tend to return to a level that is already defined by its base, namely Point-2.
In contrast, in the case of a WW, price will ignore Point-2 and will continue to seek validation at the 1-4 Line projection - For this example, simply Google the queries "4xForecaster Wolfe Waves" and you might see how the recent EURUSD, as well as many other such cases, were able to illustrate this significant difference.
For this advantageous reason, although I try to simplify my analysis with EWP wave counts, I will still incorporate a WW pattern in the analysis, to imply that price is NOT likely to end at Point-2, but instead is expected to stubbornly seek validation of the 1-4 Line.
In the case of the recent EURUSD, you will understand why I had to re-define a bearish target given this explanation, as price was not so mindful of the predictive/forecasting model's levels of probable reversal, as much as it remains on a mission to hit and reverse off of the pattern's 1-4 Line.
So, overall, I would say that with all due respect to Elliotticians out there (and I certainly do not consider myself one of them, but rather a myopic wave counter), I would say that better and more reliable patterns exist outside of the EWP's cosmology of market geometries.
In any case, I hope that I have stirred your interest in the Wolfe Waves pattern. Again, this CADJPY only offers a pretext to talk technical analysis here, in relation to well-established advanced patterns such as the ED and EW geometries. In the background, there are proprietary patterns such as my Janus Pattern (along with other ones, such as the Great White, the Euclidean Pattern, and a rubric of other occult geometries), all this to say that this fantastic field of technical analysis, in which inner folds of occult geometries await their own unveiling, should keep this and the larger technical community busy over the years to come.
Here is a clue where to start: Ignore price. Read up sacred geometries. Numerology won't hurt. And lots of facetime with your screen.
Cheers,
David Alcindor