CADJPY Trading Within A Channel

FX:CADJPY   Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
219 7
If the support level at 94.08 holds, we're going to see another rally in the coming days. The CAD has been neutral recently with a bullish touch - it is oversold now with a potential to strengthen. The JPY is as neutral as the CAD and may strengthen as well, which is one the key risk factors in this trade idea. However, I find a bullish scenario more likely to play out than any bearish one. The potential 0.618 retracement coincides to the pip with the 0.382 alternate price projection at 95.328 - and this is the level I expect to be reached, before we see new lows (below 93.9).


A potential scenario. Too perfect to be true, but I post it anyway as a reference bullish scenario. :-)

+2 Reply
That's what I call a 'spring compression'.
And also note that there are three Fib ratio coinciding at my target (95.33):
1) 0.618 retracement
2) 0.382 major alternate price projection
3) 1.382 minor alternate price projection.

+1 Reply
Sam0101 ForceFollower
hi force, is this idea still valid? it seems that has break all the way down 93.8 just now.
I don't know. To me - it has failed. I give up on it. Enough. Been fighting me for too long. I'm out. I'm still short EURCAD though.
+1 Reply
Still bullish:

Long position still favoured:

It's just dipped below the trend line. I may be wrong, but I expect it to be a fakeout and I do not find the new lows below 93.9 to be the likely sequence of events.
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