justatrader
Short

CADJPY - Short on retest of triangle break out

FX:CADJPY   Canadian Dollar/Japanese Yen
599 56 9
Triangle break out + divergence. Expect a bounce from the lower trend line of the price channel and then a decline.
moneymaking
2 years ago
Hey justatrader, I don't think it's a good idea to sell in a bullish channel. The odds will be against you. I believe its better to stay with the trend until it bends :)
Thanks for sharing and Good Luck!!
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jangseohee moneymaking
2 years ago
Hi moneymaking, selling in a bullish channel requires at least a minimum of MACD/RSI divergence to happen under usual condition
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jangseohee
2 years ago
Though March candle is not complete yet, i do see a rejection from monthly 8 period ema, if this stagnates, and ends up a DOJI for March, there is higher change of reversal
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jangseohee
2 years ago
weekly wise, i am not 100% sure whether the divergence has TOTALLY playout or not
There is a possibility of a HS !

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jangseohee
2 years ago
@ justatrader, you have a good eye :-)
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justatrader PRO
2 years ago
There we go. Entry triggered.
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HamedAghajani PRO justatrader
2 years ago
Yes, I am in too. I am targeting 93.00 based on weekly time frame.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
price is working against us :-)
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Yen is trading very mixed today
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IvanLabrie PRO justatrader
2 years ago
Monday, no strong fundamental data to create momentum...yet.
Also you picked an entry above a very strong support, this can and will be choppy for a while before working.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
price is getting squeezed toward the nozzle

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IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
You will surely get a nice short out of this one, but it'll take a while.
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jangseohee IvanLabrie
2 years ago
No sweat, patience :-)
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justatrader PRO
2 years ago
Of all the Yen crosses, CADJPY is probably the worst of the lot. price is just dangling there, while there have been some nice up/down moves in others like NZDJPY/GBPJPY/USDJPY.
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
affected by Oil?
but sooner or later the triangle has to decide, be patience :-)
Chillax
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justatrader PRO
2 years ago
Finally some movement!!!
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
trying very hard to break back in the triangle
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Hahah... Its ok. Yen is stronger. NZDJPY>AUDJPY>GBPJPY and now finally CADJPY. There's also the jobs report this week, so maybe then we'll see some bearish momentum kick in. All in all, I don't have to worry too much about this set up anymore.
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jangseohee
2 years ago
so i can put my trailing stops
NZDJPY
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jangseohee
2 years ago
is this the rippling effect of upcoming bullish divergence??
fingers crossed
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jangseohee
2 years ago
we got a TOTAL rejection now under the lower triangle line
but median line is supporting it
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HiTech PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Completely agree, looks like CADJPY reversing with head and shoulders
CADJPY - BEARS TAKING OVER
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jangseohee
2 years ago
Hi am pretty amazed with the strength of CADJPY not falling hard after breaking out of the 4H triangle, i was informed that BOJ statement next tuesday, hence price is WAITING?
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IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Probably, same situation now as the other yen pairs.
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justatrader PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Canada jobs report in an hour + Tuesday' BoJ meeting. CADJPY is probably the worst Yen cross to trade. The declines come out of the blue and then price pretty much stalls for a long time.
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HiTech PRO justatrader
2 years ago
Missed that, thanks, now that should give more strength to the CAD
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
Thanks mate, gotta put my trailing stop first
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IvanLabrie PRO justatrader
2 years ago
Indeed, audjpy is a much better candidate once it moves out of the current slump.
Although we might see a big decline once crude moves down again.
I want to see a whole day away from 95.63...to be convinced here. (and a big range downbar)
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
I think best in GBPJPY since looks like AUDUSD is reversing to the upside
GBPJPY NO SIGNS OF STRENGTH
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justatrader PRO HiTech
2 years ago
Yes. GBPJPY was probably 'THE Trade' of the week. I exited my positions ahead of the weekend with a decent profit (exited most of the other Yen trades too). CADJPY might hold for a few more hours and then exit as well. AUD is indeed looking to turn around. NZD is still undecided which way to go.
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HiTech PRO justatrader
2 years ago
I was in on gbpjpy, took profit yesterday, and then re entered my short, it should be a steep decline
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IvanLabrie PRO HiTech
2 years ago
I still believe audjpy will go down. GBPJPY had too much support underneath for me to consider selling, also no clear setup in my timeframe.
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
obviously it would have to meet your short setup, lets see how it plays out
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IvanLabrie PRO HiTech
2 years ago
Indeed, I could see it in the 4h tf, but I trade daily and weekly.
CADJPY, looks good once it clears 94.92, which is the price which traded most often in the last trend down. Also known as the mode, in Tim Westian terms.
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HiTech PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
my main timeframe is daily, then I look for entry points on 4H and 1H charts, so its actually on daily that I had my main signal
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jangseohee
2 years ago
GJ look bullish?
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IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Yes, it's probably completing a leg down there then retracement coming.
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HiTech PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
why you are asking if it looks bullish when we all discuss about it being bearish :)
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jangseohee HiTech
2 years ago
ahaha, overall is bearish but ain't a falling wedge bullish somehow especially visiting the channel support? xP
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IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Definitely...it'll time a correction once it's there. Although the trend can be a larger downtrend in a different TF.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
The level between 179.23 and 178.256 is really strong. It will retrace once it's near. It's crossing under the daily ichimoku cloud right now, and below vwap.
No daily momentum divergence yet, so hang in there.
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HiTech PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
its too early to talk about that I think you would need multiple confirmations before you can consider anything bullish on GBPJPY. why not concentrate on facts and current price action rather than long term speculation? imho
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jangseohee HiTech
2 years ago
yes totally agree, i just remind myself don fall in love with downside :-)
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HiTech PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
if you follow the RULES that you made for yourself, emotions are eliminated automatically
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IvanLabrie PRO HiTech
2 years ago
My support level will probably hold, which will generate a retracement, but doesn't mean it's the end of the Yen strength...not even close if you look at Nikkei. I'm think we're in for a larger scale Yen reversal.
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jangseohee IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Nikkei shoot +263 today.. euphoric in play IMHV
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jangseohee HiTech
2 years ago
i would like to apologize guys, for deviating into GJ :-)
Yes, stops is innnnnnnnnnnn, emotions are OUTTTTTTTTTTT XP
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IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
I believe this is a larger move...I'd cover partially once divergence is in, then move stop to BE and scale in on the eventual retracement. Sit back, relax and make some green pips while the Yen strength lasts.
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jangseohee IvanLabrie
2 years ago
i am not saying that Bullish divergence or wedge will definitely propel price very very high, it is a sign that falling is weakening IMHV
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justatrader PRO
2 years ago
6.8% unemployment rate and yet this B**ch doesn't move an inch!!
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HiTech PRO justatrader
2 years ago
its more probable that CAD will go down against other pairs for the time being
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jangseohee justatrader
2 years ago
cancelled out by falling oil price?
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HiTech PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
just purely technical outlook
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Realisto_FX PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Not yet , there´s still a breakout down option after negative consumer sentiment in 1 hour
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justatrader PRO
2 years ago
The support/resistance at 95.436 seems to be a tough nut to crack. I would assume a dip lower and then a retrace back to 95.436 could happen only then a move to the downside, unless the pair drops in a more clear fashion.
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HiTech PRO justatrader
2 years ago
CADJPY probably going to be flat for now, then should move lower to 94.70 - first support
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