Alexander_Nikitin

Psychology post. Forex Weekly Forecast

FX:CADJPY   Canadian Dollar/Japanese Yen
Hey, mates. Here's the link to the video https://youtu.be/VXt0NMu_cLw
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Best regards, Alexander Nikitin.
Fulltime professional trader and programmer.
kmk.msp
5 months ago
Initially at start of my FX carrier, i want to avoid losses but gradually my habit is changing and now, not 100%, but majorly i accept the losses...
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Alexander_Nikitin kmk.msp
5 months ago
Great. Thatnks for your respond
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Gluckmann PRO
5 months ago
I need to accept loses, but limit my risk :)
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Alexander_Nikitin Gluckmann
5 months ago
Thanks for your reply.
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I prefer to refer to seasoned traders who have demonstrated a sound expectancy ratio over a long period. I do not prefer the words 'professional trader' because it suggests that there is some status in a community to be achieved and hailed as such.

Seasoned consistently profitable traders accept their losses in advance of placing any trade. This however does not mean that they don't avoid losses. The whole business of calculating an acceptable stop loss is about limiting loss to an acceptable level. Whether you limit or avoid, is rather a question of semantics which is a never ending debate.

Seasoned profitable traders are also avoiding unacceptable aggregate losses relative to their position size. This is part of a sound method/strategy built into evaluating sound stop losses.

A novice trader may also accept losses in advance but the difference is that s/he - probably due to lack of true competence (i.e. not having that sound expectancy ratio) - may not be as adept at avoiding unacceptable aggregate losses relative to their position size. I speak from painful personal experience - and I'm not claiming any 'professional trading' status. There is also the issue of systematic risk which no stop loss can prevent. No pain no gain: http://www.newtrader.club/2015/02/26/no-pain-no-gain/
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Alexander_Nikitin Captain_Walker
5 months ago
When I say accept a loss I mean accept the loss that already happened not the potential loss calculated as stop loss size. I call it risk because it is not closed yet. Here a loss is the result of a closed position. Nevertheless, thank you for your respond))
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Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
5 months ago
Nobody I know goes to a casino and puts their chips on the table thinking of it as a potential loss. That's their actual loss they're willing to withstand. If they can't take the loss then they shouldn't be betting at a casino. In trading the stop loss represents the 'size of the chip'. Just to clear I do not imply that trading is equal to activities at a casino. (However, it is a fact that certain kinds of trading such as spreadbetting are treated by the HMRC and Europe as gambling, whilst strangely CFDs are not so treated.)

Risk is the probability of exposure to adverse circumstances i.e. danger, loss, harm etc.

Even if you meant 'accept the loss that already happened not the potential loss calculated as stop loss size' - the seasoned trader will see the stop loss as a loss that has already happened before, during and after the trade (i.e. unopened, opened or closed). But they will know from their proven expectancy ratio that their trading methodology gives them an edge over the markets in the longer term. Hence emergence of the so-called care free state referred to by the late and great Mark Douglas.

I'm simply giving my perspective and knowledge. I do not assert that I am right.
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Alexander_Nikitin Captain_Walker
5 months ago
Well, when I take some chips out of my pocket and put it on the table I have less chips left in my pocket than I had before I made a bet. When I put my money at risk in trading my account size stays the same until the position is closed....
I was not talking about "accepting the risk of every trade" as stated by Mark Douglas. I was asking for accepting the loss of a closed position.
In comments below I explained my point of view. Please, check for information there.
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Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
5 months ago
I've hit my stop loss for time spent on this particular point if there is a point at all.
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zhipengcfel
5 months ago
No risk, no profit. But the loss limit should under my control. I need to accept losses.
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Alexander_Nikitin zhipengcfel
5 months ago
Great. Hope you did not misunderstand me. Potential loss is not the same as the loss of a closed position. As we cannot foresee the future we cannot say if the potential loss turns into a real loss. My question was about the real loss, not potential loss. Honestly my question is as follows: What are your thoughts and feelings after you had 1,2,3,4... 10 losses in a row? Do you accept them all or you will try to avoid them next time?
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zhipengcfel Alexander_Nikitin
5 months ago
OK. Then I need to check why I made these losses. They came from my obivous mistakes i.e. arrogant, greedy, careless etc. or from normal stop losses. If they came from my obvious mistakes I need to avoid them. If they came from normal stop losses, I will accept them.
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Alexander_Nikitin zhipengcfel
5 months ago
When you ask "why", this means you do not accept the losses. You are not satisfied with the result you have. Trying to figure out if you are making some mistakes means that you doubt your ability to execute the strategy objectively. It is called self-sabotage. Even after you have checked your state for mistakes and found none, even if you realized that the losses were a natural drawdown of the strategy, but the fact stays the fact. You first doubted yourself and only then you have realized that everything was ok. Self-sabotage or self-doubt is the result of not accepting the losses.
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Captain_Walker PRO zhipengcfel
5 months ago
I think it is useful to re-evaluate what happened after a string of losses. I would consider it arrogant and cock-sure to simply press on without such a re-evaluation. A re-evaluation does not mean that one doubts one's ability - at all. It means that one is receptive and responsive to market conditions or even to one's own psychology.

After a sober and robust re-evaluation one may come up with a range of answers. If it happens that nothing was wrong with your method/strategy, then the next obvious questions is 'Has something fundamental changed in the markets?'. Markets do change their behaviour from time to time. The recent BREXIT crisis shows that the usual round of strategies/methods may not work as effectively.

Simply to plough on with a strategy which may be correct but does not compensate for changed market behaviour is foolish, stubborn and inflexible. Over-confidence, arrogance and stubbornness are also the enemies within. (Just to be clear my opinion is not directed at any identifiable person. I am speaking generally).

There are traders who work on inflexible strategies/methods and that's fine for them. The great thing about trading and also the danger with it, is that 'you are your own boss' i.e. one is not obliged to heed any different perspective uttered by anyone else.
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Alexander_Nikitin Captain_Walker
5 months ago
re-eavaluating is useful when a trader is on its way to perfection. but when he is perfect then there's no need to re-evaluate anything. from post to post you keep reminding me that money conditions change and the strategy should also evolve. i suppose you have a belief that the strategy should predict every turn of the market. i think you miss the fact that there are very specific strategies that describe only a spicific market condition. when market changes these conditions stop to appear. in this case a trader using it doesn't trade. these strategies describe human behavior not the market itself. look, there's no doubt that if you punch somebody into face he will most likely become angry. It is a very high probability outcome. civilizations changed but this behavioristic pattern works as well as it was working thousands of years ago. nothing can change the fact that people come into the market to make some money. also nothing can change the fact that the only way to make some money is to buy low and to sell high.
I don't think it is arrogance or over-confidence to belief that you are doing everything perfect and don't need re-evaluation.
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Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
5 months ago
'from post to post you keep reminding me that money conditions change and the strategy should also evolve.' Really? I'd need to see those posts. I have no knowledge them. But even if I did or did not 'remind' you, I believe that strategy/method must be responsive to market conditions.

All traders in the UK will have seen brokers 'adapting' to market conditions by increasing spreads and margins by huge amounts. If the brokers are adapting to market conditions, surely that means something is quite different. We're actually seeing before our own eyes, hourly candles matching the size of daily candles.

People who play strategies relying on fibonacci, bollinger bands and RSIs are in trouble recently, because their usual 'rules' simply do not hold up. The point is that something is very different. Those who developed their methods/strategies in calmer markets - where those strategies worked well, may find that they don't work as well in recent times or are unlikely to work well in coming weeks.

'i suppose you have a belief that the strategy should predict every turn of the market.'
You may suppose that I have such a belief, whether I hold such a belief is a different matter. Let's not turn supposition into fact.

'i think you miss the fact that there are very specific strategies that describe only a spicific market condition. when market changes these conditions stop to appear. in this case a trader using it doesn't trade.'
I missed nothing. I would agree that traders who hold to a rigid strategy that cannot evolve or be reasonably flexible whilst not taking on unacceptable losses, have to stop trading. That in itself is part of their strategy.

Strategy doesn't rule me. I created my own strategies. They didn't create me. Rigid strategies rule some traders and that's fine for them. There is no law that says that a sufficiently responsive strategy is doomed to fail. The reality is that traders who refuse to adapt are actually still living in fear. Fear? Yes fear that if they adapt they will lose. So in reality they haven't truly achieved the 'fearless state'.

'also nothing can change the fact that the only way to make some money is to buy low and to sell high.'
This may be one perception. The more appropriate equation is to move from a position of disadvantage to a position of advantage statistically over numerous trades. My equation involves accepting that up to 80% of positions will move against me, within my own strategy. Therefore I accept before I place trades that 8 out of 10 in a row will fail. I write off the loss in advance. I don't count 'chips' until the trade is closed. This works for me. I'm not saying it has to work for everybody else.

're-eavaluating is useful when a trader is on its way to perfection. but when he is perfect then there's no need to re-evaluate anything.'
I'm afraid this is so devoid of logic that I'm totally stunned. There is no such thing as perfection in trading and no trader should fdeclare 'when s/he is perfect'.

I further declare that any trader who believes s/he is perfect or has achieved perfection is frankly arrogant and deluded. And that's the end of that. I know of no reputable trainer of traders who tells their trainees that they must make perfection a goal.

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Alexander_Nikitin Captain_Walker
5 months ago
Your views are very rigid. My words had no effect on you. Ha. This June is probably one of the best months I ever had in my trading career. I use fibs, XABCD pattern you know. It may sound arrogant or deluded but I execute my strategy in a perfect way. When I say "perfect' I truly believe that there's no way to execute it better. I am perfect in this part. My strategy has a rule that adopts it to the changed market. You know it is an ACS-tool. Be the swing range extremely wide or be it extremely small ACS-tool adopts the starting X-point. Also I have limitation rule. I don't trade extremely small patterns and I do not trade extremely large patterns. I call it XA size rule. If the market moves hunderds of pips in one candle I stay away because of this rule. It has nothing in common with unacceptable losses. It is a statistically proven size. The variation of the strategy I trade now is slightly different from the one described in the trading plan I sent you. I fine tuned it, applied some filters and got rid of some rubbish. But the reasons for the changes were statistically proven data, not the market changing conditions. Now I truly belief my strategy is perfect, able to automaticly adopt to changing market conditions. And Also I am perfect in the part of executing it correct way. Call it arrogant if you like. I never opened my skull to see if I have some brain, remember? The knowledge of brain existing in my head is only other people's words to me, not my direct experience. Hahaha. Brainless trader.))
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Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
5 months ago
It's becomes very rigid trying to exchange ideas with the self-declared brainless. Innit? :-D
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Captain_Walker PRO Alexander_Nikitin
5 months ago
Oh. The Peter Principle applies. Google your friend. Not me.
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ladex009
5 months ago
i need to accept calculated loss
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Alexander_Nikitin ladex009
5 months ago
Nice. Look at the above comment to see if you understood what I ment..
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oussama11fcb
5 months ago
Losses are part of the game! the golden rule is to Cut Losses Short... you'll find it easy to accept small losses
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Alexander_Nikitin oussama11fcb
5 months ago
So, what are your thoughts after 10 losses in a row?
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cokicoki
5 months ago
can i accept both? coz there it would depends on situation right.
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Alexander_Nikitin cokicoki
5 months ago
Watch the video to know the answer))
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cokicoki Alexander_Nikitin
5 months ago
ah thanks bro :D
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Alexander_Nikitin cokicoki
5 months ago
you are welcome)
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FKHo PRO
5 months ago
I need to accept losses.
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Alexander_Nikitin FKHo
5 months ago
ok.
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ProFX_Strategist
5 months ago
Great post...;

- But success in trading Forex is not as straightforward...; if a trader is extremely afraid to receive any losses at all, then she may either place a really very tight stop-loss (& have that be taken all of the time); because she will probably be kept getting stopped out in every trades... But if she placed an equally very-tight-take-profit, then there is also another 50% chance that her TP could just as easily be taken as well...

- (Trader Y): But here is a trader who is so overly-confident & hopeful as to (remove his stop-loss altogether in his losing trade) in the hopes that his losing trade will turn-right-back-around to take his TP...; but that will also give him another 50% chance of receiving a margin call at the end too...! (Holding losing positions & perhaps adding on to losers...)

- (Trader Z): Now another professional trader decides to (refuse using the take-profit feature at all) & portray to hold on to his winning trade positions instead (with stop-losses strictly at BE only); but then this trader struggles to make any meaningful profit at the end of the day (& only could get 1 or 2 successful trades that's all after a long month of hard work - with the reason this trader always ended up getting stopped-out at BE most of the time, which hardly left behind enough profits for him - so trading is not making him enough $$$ to sustain his commitments/living-expenses every month; he still has to look for a full time job)...

- (Trader A): Another smart trader comes in & advocates (using very-tight-take-profits only - without any stop-losses!); now this trader has a 90% chance of winning in all of his trades, but he also have another 10% chance of losing in his trades as well (but his losing consequence can be very disastrous indeed - like a margin call at the end!)... He can end up losing way much more than all that he had ever made (in just one losing trade that's it)...!

- (Trader B): Another trader comes in & advocates Hedging (buying & selling at the same time in both directions with very-tight take-profits only at both ends; without any stop-losses at all...); he could be very consistently profitable (90% of the time) in all of his trades; but this traders also faces the great danger of losing very-big in a "trending-market" (usually losing way much more than all of his profits put together)...! (Because his method only works very well in a sideways/ranging market condition that's all; so once the trend starts, he is a completely dead horse...!)

- (Trader C): Finally, another trader comes in & advocates using technical indicators (like the Stochastics, Oscillators, & fast RSI) to buy when the price is in oversold, & sell when the price is in overbought (to exploit overbought & oversold conditions)... This trader wins in all of his trades (95% of the time), but once again, there is just another 5% risk for this trader to lose; & it is always just that 5% losing streak that ultimate burns this trader to the ground...! (Because this trader's strategy only works very well in a ranging/sideways/random/whipsaw market condition, but always gets his account destroyed once the market starts trending/having a clear trending path/direction...; but by the time this trader realizes a strong trend happening, it is most often too late; as his losses has already became way too big; probably superseded all of his profits ever made...!)

- (Trader D): Last but not the least, another experienced trader comes in & advocates (go/flow with the trend; because the trend is your best friend; be a trend-trader; identify trends; do not try to counter-trend trade!); but bad things still can happen to this experienced trader; he can be taken by a nasty surprise when the market suddenly turns violently around on him (& his stop-loss is taken)! So he advocates trading on longer time-frames, but this certainly requires a hell lots of patience, + proper risk & money management (strictly no fast money & fun over here)! Suddenly trading is becoming very boring, & the profits are very slow to come (this trader has more reasons to go look for a full time job because trading suddenly becomes more like a passive income investment type with slower returns + there is so much free boring time to wait for these slow/swing trades to materialize; profits are much slower over the course of time compared to scalping & counter-trend trading in smaller time-frames; which were so profitable & really fast money!)... Finally, this experienced trend/swing trader is also not immune to losses (as his wider stop-losses could still be taken at the end of the day!) + it could also be hard for him to make much profits or make it fast (so he still has to go look for a full time job to sustain his monthly bills & living expenses because trading isn't making much or quick enough money for him)...

In conclusion, trading Forex is not straightforward. There is no such thing as "One Single Magic-Golden Pill/Formula/Answer" to be the key to unlock a successful trading career in Forex , but instead, it is about a combination/myriad of different skill-sets & verifying/varying levels of strategy types to make a trader just become "more" successful with a "higher-probability" for more "consistent" success/profits in trading; (there is no such thing as becoming Godlike & fully mastering Forex trading; warning; such a thing doesn't exist in trading)...; as one can only improve in trading with just a "higher-probability" of success that's it (with more "consistent" profits & "smaller" percentage of losses) that's all (that's what makes a successful trader)...

(1): In Forex, the market is in ranging/sideways/whipsaws (with no clear direction) most of the time (75% of the time!); so in this case, (Trader A, B, C, & Y above will succeed. thrive very well, & profit greatly); wheres it would be simply "Hellish" for (Trader Z & D); who can't thrive/survive under such "zigzag" market conditions...!

(2): In Forex, the market is trending (only like 25% of the time - that's like so rare); & hence it would be the "rare golden opportunity" for both (Trader Z & D above) to start making their profits then (when the market finally starts trending in a direction in a limited/particular event or time only)...! (But all Trader A, B, C, & Y above may began to receive their big losses/margin calls at this point in time/season...)

*In order to become a successful trader, you need to be both (above)! (You need to have both type of skills implanted/set in you when you trade Forex - You can't only just be one, you need to be both!)
Being able to be profitable when the market is in sideways-ranging mode, & same in a trending market mode, & being able to switch between both strategy (not just stubbornly sticking to one & end-up losing your trades as a result)...

"Be quick to cut losses & let your profits run..." (This is only highly successful in a trending-market condition; but it is a great loser & does not work in a ranging/sideways market condition...)*

"Be slow to cut your losses & be quick to take your profits..." (This method only has a 100% rate of success/very-profitable in a ranging/sideways market condition; but it can cause great losses when the market trends strongly in a particular direction & never returns...)*

*(We need to think of a strategy to solve this problem in trading & be successful & profitable no matter what...)

Best regards.
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Alexander_Nikitin ProFX_Strategist
5 months ago
I wish you have watched the video. To have a belief installed you need to work hard. The belief "I accept the losers" is the result of a very profound understanding of a strategy. You need to have strategy first. You need to backtest it. You need to foreward test it. You need to trade it realtime for a statistically relevant period to see if it can be repeated. Doing this very job, you acquire many different skills that result in the change in your mind. This change is the only thing that separates you from becomming a professional trader. From "I need to avoid losers" to "I accept losers". When you reach your goal and become a consistently profitable trader, please come back and read your above post. I bet you will enjoy funny minutes reading it. Cheers))
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