themarketzone

Harmonic analysis - Caterpillar probably on its way to 55$

NYSE:CAT   CATERPILLAR INC DEL
I always find it amazing how the media starts talking about crisis when it almost over.
Although $CAT is still far from the important buy zone I'll mentioned below, $CAT had to lose almost half of its value for this guy to start paying attention: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/24/cramer-caterpillar-pain-is-just-beginning.html (Jim Cramer realizing the $CAT is in trouble).

In fact, the bearish opportunity on $CAT was about a year ago as $CAT created weekly triple top with bearish harmonics - on Sep 20th (2014!) I posted a bearish setup for $CAT with the bearish weekly Bat that completed near 112$ (see the setup posted a year ago - http://goo.gl/IL2e09)
The final target zone of this bearish setup was the strong structure zone near 80$ - 30$ decline from its peak.

When $CAT broke below 75$, the bottom of the weekly structure zone, it actually created a very strong bearish signal that suggests that $CAT will not create higher highs any time soon.
80$ Became a major resistance zone right now (weekly zone) that should prevent $CAT from any longer term rally attempt.

Still, recommending to sell $CAT now, is irresponsible (Yes Mr. Cramer).

$CAT reached a weekly support zone (64-65$) that can create short term pullback, perhaps towards the 80$ zone. Buying $CAT right now is too risky, and If' I'd planned to buy it here, I'd wait for at least some sort of daily reversal pattern or at least a weekly Pinbar pattern.

The better opportunity will be if (and I believe ..when) $CAT will decline towards the 55$ zone.
The 55$ is a strong weekly structure zone (support) and the completion zone of a bullish Butterfly pattern .
55$ should definitely be marked as potential Buy Zone for those who seek to buy $CAT stock (obviously you need to look for smaller time frames and seek for confirmation signals before jumping in front of this speeding bearish train).

So 65$ and 55$ are two potential buy zones (with clear advantage to 55$). Both of these buy zones have the same target zone - 75-80$.
80$ will a major sell zone to monitor over the next weeks/months. If $CAT will rally (Year End Rally), 80$ will be the zone to monitor for possible selling opportunities....but, pay attention also to 88$. A weekly False Break to 88$ isn't something I'd rule out (not likely at this stage but put it in mind).

One last thing.. If, the highly unlikely scenario that $CAT will break below 50$ will occur, there's also a bullish Bat completing near 30$ (32$). It really looks highly unlikely but.. hey.. no one thought that $CAT will lose almost half of its value in about a year

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Tomer J,
The Market Zone - You trading Edge
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jangseohee
a year ago
58-60
snapshot
+1 Reply
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