Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on February 18, 2022 with a closing price of 162.34.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 171.32 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 15.282% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 18.349% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 28.872% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 14 trading bars; half occur within 27 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 31 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
@stonk - I don’t think anyone is expecting much lower but the SPX and DJIA just erased the last year in the last 2 months! tomorrow will be telling…. I dumped my 165 calls when the price broke 162 today.
FASRNUR
⋅
I'm on board with your findings. Got in today for the 18.Mar 165 calls at 62.15. Hedging with 150 puts (next support level) until a clearer direction is established. If it drops below 159.5 I'm selling the calls and riding the puts.
StockSignaler
⋅
@FASRNUR, I am not expecting the markets to drop much more from here. we finally broke the January lows in the 500 index. I figure a bottom within the next few days once Ukraine begins and then we should shoot up before March expirations. Check out the call for TPX too. I got 35 calls yesterday for Mar 18 when the stock was trading below 30. I like that one as much as this CCI call