CDSP peaks are a possible lagging indicator of recession starts
The new
CDSP
numbers are in for the previous quarter (consumer debt as percentage of household disposable income) .
Large spike up in consumer debt loads as people are burning through their last cash and borrowing to keep up their life style before the crash. Goldman-Sachs claims that retail has unloaded their positions from the bull run. Thanks to @FXEvolution for the article.
DotCom and GFC also had similar spikes.
If a recession has already started, then earnings season will be bad. This fact is what can put us on the path to SPX ~3300-3500
What to do:
If the CDSP in the future starts to spike down, it may be an indicator that a recession has already started. Check back in 3+ months.
CDSP
numbers are in for the previous quarter (consumer debt as percentage of household disposable income) . Large spike up in consumer debt loads as people are burning through their last cash and borrowing to keep up their life style before the crash. Goldman-Sachs claims that retail has unloaded their positions from the bull run. Thanks to @FXEvolution for the article.
DotCom and GFC also had similar spikes.
If a recession has already started, then earnings season will be bad. This fact is what can put us on the path to SPX ~3300-3500
What to do:
If the CDSP in the future starts to spike down, it may be an indicator that a recession has already started. Check back in 3+ months.