CENX - Possible Bull

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CENX             appeared to be just finishing a head and shoulders tops formation (marked by five horizontal blue lines) spanning from Sep 2015 to march 2015. Based on that formation, the price should have retreated to approximately 10 dollars. It went slightly below that but showed some signs of stabilizing. However, CENX             also posted revenues that were 26% below consensus in August, driving the stock price even lower - this in the face of ongoing troubles from oversupply of aluminum.

CENX             has traded lower from that point, but appears to be staging a possible rally. After stabilizing somewhat from November until January, positive earnings surprise coupled with the generally improved market (over the past several weeks at any rate, whether it holds remains to be seen) has helped drive the price above two short/intermediate term price levels at $4 and $6.

This brings us to the key point - what will it do next? CENX             hasn't broken the trendline running at approximately $7 since its second decline in August until now. If it can hold above this level, its next key resistance level will be $10 and the distance between here and there represents a good opportunity.

I would cautiously note, however, that while volume was strong immediately after the positive earnings report, volume on the recent break above its $7 resistance is actually below its moving average . I would also note that aluminum prices have recovered somewhat and this is also a driving force behind CENX             prices.

This is a wait and see moment, trading well above $7 for a few days or seeing a significant price increase on significant volume from here will indicate that CENX             has bottomed and the price will increase from here for some time.

Anticipating a move from here would be foolhardy.
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