Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Donald Trump could make a historic shift in U.S. cannabis policy. His administration is considering reclassifying marijuana as a less dangerous drug, a decision that, according to sources, could be announced within weeks.
Currently, marijuana is listed under Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act, alongside substances with no recognized medical use. The proposed change —moving it to Schedule III, as recommended by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) in 2024— would have a profound impact:
• Tax relief: elimination of the restrictive Section 280E, which prevents cannabis companies from deducting expenses.
• Access to financing: opening the door to traditional banking, with cheaper credit.
• Corporate boost: greater ease for mergers and the arrival of institutional investment.
The market reacted strongly. Among the listed companies benefiting the most, Canopy Growth (NASDAQ: CGC), Tilray Brands (NASDAQ: TLRY), Aurora Cannabis (NASDAQ: ACB), Organigram (NASDAQ: OGI) and SNDL (NASDAQ: SNDL) posted double-digit gains.
However, this measure would not amount to full legalization. Cannabis would remain illegal at the federal level, interstate trade would stay closed, and each state would maintain its own regulations. Even so, for an industry weighed down by high taxes and expensive credit, it would be like going from playing in the mud to running on a track.
Fundamental Analysis – Canopy Growth
Canopy Growth is undergoing a transformation process to reduce losses and strengthen its balance sheet. Over the past 12 months, the company reported revenues of CA$275 million, with a gross margin close to 28%, but net losses of CA$–516 million. Debt fell 47% year-on-year, improving liquidity ratios and lowering financial risk, although the fundamental rating remains low (2/10 on ChartMill) due to negative cash flow and lack of profitability.
In its most recent fiscal quarter, the loss narrowed to CA$92 million from CA$640 million a year earlier, driven by growth in the international segment (+80%) and improved margins in products such as vaporizers. The challenge remains to consolidate stable revenues and progress toward profitability — a goal that could accelerate if favorable regulatory changes take place in the U.S.
Technical Analysis – Canopy Growth
In the short term, CGC shows bullish signals. Most technical indicators point to a potential Buy, including moving averages where the 50-day MA has started a possible crossover above the 100-day MA. In recent weeks, the MACD has remained positive, and momentum has been reinforced by recent gains (+5.8% on August 13, 2025). The RSI at 71.49% is nearing overbought territory, suggesting caution against potential pullbacks.
In the long term, the trend is neutral: the price and shorter moving averages remain below the 200-day MA, and relative strength compared to the market is low — although it has increased in recent weeks. This implies the stock may maintain high volatility and will depend on external catalysts — such as regulatory changes or earnings results — to sustain its recovery.
The current trading range that has not yet been broken is between $0.7858 and $1.99, with yesterday’s close very near at $1.64. If the current upward move extends, we could see the price testing the 200-day MA. If the price fails to break through decisively, we may see a return to the mean, which coincides with the Point of Control (POC) at $1.25.
Reclassifying Herbal Leisure
The potential reclassification of marijuana in the U.S. would not only reshape the sector’s legal and tax landscape, but it could also be the catalyst Canopy Growth needs to move toward profitability. While fundamentals remain fragile, short-term technicals reflect market optimism. The real challenge will be maintaining that confidence beyond the “Trump effect.”
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La información facilitada no constituye un análisis de inversiones. El material no se ha elaborado de conformidad con los requisitos legales destinados a promover la independencia de los informes de inversiones y, como tal, debe considerarse una comunicación comercial.
Toda la información ha sido preparada por ActivTrades ("AT"). La información no contiene un registro de los precios de AT, o una oferta o solicitud de una transacción en cualquier instrumento financiero. Ninguna representación o garantía se da en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de esta información.
Cualquier material proporcionado no tiene en cuenta el objetivo específico de inversión y la situación financiera de cualquier persona que pueda recibirlo. La rentabilidad pasada y las estimaciones no sinónimo ni un indicador fiable de la rentabilidad futura. AT presta un servicio exclusivamente de ejecución. En consecuencia, toda persona que actúe sobre la base de la información facilitada lo hace por su cuenta y riesgo. Los tipos de interés pueden cambiar. El riesgo político es impredecible. Las acciones de los bancos centrales pueden variar. Las herramientas de las plataformas no garantizan el éxito.
Donald Trump could make a historic shift in U.S. cannabis policy. His administration is considering reclassifying marijuana as a less dangerous drug, a decision that, according to sources, could be announced within weeks.
Currently, marijuana is listed under Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act, alongside substances with no recognized medical use. The proposed change —moving it to Schedule III, as recommended by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) in 2024— would have a profound impact:
• Tax relief: elimination of the restrictive Section 280E, which prevents cannabis companies from deducting expenses.
• Access to financing: opening the door to traditional banking, with cheaper credit.
• Corporate boost: greater ease for mergers and the arrival of institutional investment.
The market reacted strongly. Among the listed companies benefiting the most, Canopy Growth (NASDAQ: CGC), Tilray Brands (NASDAQ: TLRY), Aurora Cannabis (NASDAQ: ACB), Organigram (NASDAQ: OGI) and SNDL (NASDAQ: SNDL) posted double-digit gains.
However, this measure would not amount to full legalization. Cannabis would remain illegal at the federal level, interstate trade would stay closed, and each state would maintain its own regulations. Even so, for an industry weighed down by high taxes and expensive credit, it would be like going from playing in the mud to running on a track.
Fundamental Analysis – Canopy Growth
Canopy Growth is undergoing a transformation process to reduce losses and strengthen its balance sheet. Over the past 12 months, the company reported revenues of CA$275 million, with a gross margin close to 28%, but net losses of CA$–516 million. Debt fell 47% year-on-year, improving liquidity ratios and lowering financial risk, although the fundamental rating remains low (2/10 on ChartMill) due to negative cash flow and lack of profitability.
In its most recent fiscal quarter, the loss narrowed to CA$92 million from CA$640 million a year earlier, driven by growth in the international segment (+80%) and improved margins in products such as vaporizers. The challenge remains to consolidate stable revenues and progress toward profitability — a goal that could accelerate if favorable regulatory changes take place in the U.S.
Technical Analysis – Canopy Growth
In the short term, CGC shows bullish signals. Most technical indicators point to a potential Buy, including moving averages where the 50-day MA has started a possible crossover above the 100-day MA. In recent weeks, the MACD has remained positive, and momentum has been reinforced by recent gains (+5.8% on August 13, 2025). The RSI at 71.49% is nearing overbought territory, suggesting caution against potential pullbacks.
In the long term, the trend is neutral: the price and shorter moving averages remain below the 200-day MA, and relative strength compared to the market is low — although it has increased in recent weeks. This implies the stock may maintain high volatility and will depend on external catalysts — such as regulatory changes or earnings results — to sustain its recovery.
The current trading range that has not yet been broken is between $0.7858 and $1.99, with yesterday’s close very near at $1.64. If the current upward move extends, we could see the price testing the 200-day MA. If the price fails to break through decisively, we may see a return to the mean, which coincides with the Point of Control (POC) at $1.25.
Reclassifying Herbal Leisure
The potential reclassification of marijuana in the U.S. would not only reshape the sector’s legal and tax landscape, but it could also be the catalyst Canopy Growth needs to move toward profitability. While fundamentals remain fragile, short-term technicals reflect market optimism. The real challenge will be maintaining that confidence beyond the “Trump effect.”
*******************************************************************************************
La información facilitada no constituye un análisis de inversiones. El material no se ha elaborado de conformidad con los requisitos legales destinados a promover la independencia de los informes de inversiones y, como tal, debe considerarse una comunicación comercial.
Toda la información ha sido preparada por ActivTrades ("AT"). La información no contiene un registro de los precios de AT, o una oferta o solicitud de una transacción en cualquier instrumento financiero. Ninguna representación o garantía se da en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de esta información.
Cualquier material proporcionado no tiene en cuenta el objetivo específico de inversión y la situación financiera de cualquier persona que pueda recibirlo. La rentabilidad pasada y las estimaciones no sinónimo ni un indicador fiable de la rentabilidad futura. AT presta un servicio exclusivamente de ejecución. En consecuencia, toda persona que actúe sobre la base de la información facilitada lo hace por su cuenta y riesgo. Los tipos de interés pueden cambiar. El riesgo político es impredecible. Las acciones de los bancos centrales pueden variar. Las herramientas de las plataformas no garantizan el éxito.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.