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ProfitHarvest
May 28, 2020 4:55 PM

[CGC] 'Locally' Overpriced, 'Globally' Good Value + Earnings! Long

Description

Earnings is tomorrow and unfortunately the price didn't slide as much as I had hoped. It recently broke and held above it's current upward channel and overall the cannabis sector should continue it's long term slide trajectory into summer, very high sector gravity, which is why it's locally overpriced.

Also all indicators are leaning toward sell right now so kinda weird time to buy.

If CGC pops, expect others to follow to varying degrees and look for good sell opportunities sector wide. Likewise, if the news is particularly bad all around, the whole segment will drop but that seems unlikely tomorrow.

CGC is a top three cannabis company next to OGI and APHA and is much bigger than those two.

Local value isn't great right now but long term the price is still pretty good and upside potential on earnings tomorrow is huge if they beat any expectations at all.

They will release their earnings data before market open tomorrow so get in today if you're expecting a FOMO bump and then will have a call mid day, both events tomorrow could rock the price up or down but given the sunk costs in this stock and never ending cannabis FOMO, it is most likely to spike up.

Will probably try to sell off 40-60% of my stake tomorrow if it does spike and wait till mid-June to really load up the cannabis sector at better value.

As an aside, I do expect the overall market to begin it's crash tomorrow, leading into first week June bloodbath, so I mostly likely will flip back to hold by market close Friday and wait for the next buy opp.

Let's hope for a bountiful harvest tomorrow!
Comments
JGM0706
Thanks for posting this. Great call on today's market little crash - there is plenty of red!
ProfitHarvest
@JGM0706, Yea CGC brought nothin at all to the game, a bit surprising, but yea overall forecast holds.

I'm still happy with my reup, CGC is my #1 long term cannabis play.
JGM0706
@ProfitHarvest, Thanks! I will be keeping an eye to get in around $15 or $17
ProfitHarvest
@JGM0706, It's already there ;).
JGM0706
@ProfitHarvest, LOL. True. Mondays are usually red, so I was feeling maybe I could buy closer to $15 than dive right in at $17, maybe I should scale and buy some...
RNCBR
nice analysis, what you think are the odds of the earnings results price already being acounted in current share value?
BrendanMullan
0
ProfitHarvest
@RNCBR, Nothing is priced in with Cannabis stocks, it's all just FOMO and playing market psychology and fundamental swings for now.

Definitely worse price now than ACB before their last earnings, that ACB FOMO and bull-trap rally FOMO is why everything overpriced 'locally' now.
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