Over the past few weeks I've been monitoring CHFJPY closely, and the more confluences I gather, the more interested I become in this market. While price hasn't triggered my entry yet, I believe the current structure deserves attention.
From a technical perspective, CHFJPY is developing an ascending structure after rejecting the June lows. Price is compressing beneath a higher-timeframe supply zone while respecting weekly demand, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution.
However, I'm not interested in buying at current prices.
The area I'm watching is the liquidity resting below the most recent swing low. A sweep into that liquidity would provide a much cleaner location for institutions to accumulate before any meaningful continuation higher.
If that liquidity is taken and the lower timeframe confirms with a bullish shift in market structure, I'll start looking for long opportunities targeting the daily supply around 201.90–202.60.
Commitment of Traders (COT)
The latest positioning continues to support the bullish case.
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Speculators remain net short overall, but recent data shows increasing long exposure together with short covering.
This often represents the early stages of positioning before a larger directional move.
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Large speculators are still heavily net short.
Although open interest contracted during the latest report, speculative positioning continues to reflect structural weakness in the Yen.
Seasonality
Seasonality also aligns with my current thesis.
Historically, the Swiss Franc tends to strengthen during the second half of July, while the Japanese Yen has shown relatively weaker historical performance over the same period.
Retail Sentiment
Retail traders remain heavily positioned against this market.
Current sentiment shows approximately 78% of traders are short CHFJPY.
I generally treat extreme retail positioning as a contrarian indicator. When combined with technical confluence and COT data, it adds another layer supporting a potential bullish continuation.
My Trading Plan
I'm not trying to predict the next move.
I'm waiting for the market to offer confirmation.
My ideal scenario is:
Liquidity sweep below the recent swing low.
Bullish market structure shift on the lower timeframe.
Long entry only after confirmation.
Targets into the daily supply around 201.90–202.60.
From a technical perspective, CHFJPY is developing an ascending structure after rejecting the June lows. Price is compressing beneath a higher-timeframe supply zone while respecting weekly demand, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution.
However, I'm not interested in buying at current prices.
The area I'm watching is the liquidity resting below the most recent swing low. A sweep into that liquidity would provide a much cleaner location for institutions to accumulate before any meaningful continuation higher.
If that liquidity is taken and the lower timeframe confirms with a bullish shift in market structure, I'll start looking for long opportunities targeting the daily supply around 201.90–202.60.
Commitment of Traders (COT)
The latest positioning continues to support the bullish case.
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Speculators remain net short overall, but recent data shows increasing long exposure together with short covering.
This often represents the early stages of positioning before a larger directional move.
Japanese Yen (JPY)
Large speculators are still heavily net short.
Although open interest contracted during the latest report, speculative positioning continues to reflect structural weakness in the Yen.
Seasonality
Seasonality also aligns with my current thesis.
Historically, the Swiss Franc tends to strengthen during the second half of July, while the Japanese Yen has shown relatively weaker historical performance over the same period.
Retail Sentiment
Retail traders remain heavily positioned against this market.
Current sentiment shows approximately 78% of traders are short CHFJPY.
I generally treat extreme retail positioning as a contrarian indicator. When combined with technical confluence and COT data, it adds another layer supporting a potential bullish continuation.
My Trading Plan
I'm not trying to predict the next move.
I'm waiting for the market to offer confirmation.
My ideal scenario is:
Liquidity sweep below the recent swing low.
Bullish market structure shift on the lower timeframe.
Long entry only after confirmation.
Targets into the daily supply around 201.90–202.60.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.