"We expect risk appetite to rebound, helped by benign wage growth in the US. In this environment, short CHFNOK trades should do well. Recent Norwegian macro data have generally beaten market expectations, with forward looking indicators like PMI also holding up well. NOK also receives additional support from rallying oil price which helps its oil sector, as evidenced in the strong regional network survey (next 6m outlook reaching the highest level since 2012),which has historically set the tone for the Norges Bank. On the CHF side, we expect Swiss private investors to invest more abroad with the Italian election and German SPD vote confirming that the risk of Eurozone break-up remains low, and the ECB continuing to move towards policy normalisation. We do not expect the SNB to change its accommodative policy this week given uncertainty over the impending vote on the Swiss sovereign money initiative in June and inflation still far below 2%. The SNB may continue to limit the CHF upside, as the sight deposits data suggests that they resumed FX interventions when EURCHF was hovering around 1.15. The risks to this trade are the Norges Bank striking a dovish tone or the SNB being more hawkish this week." Morgan Stanley
Very much agree on this (as a Norwegian CHFNOK) - oil is up 200% and NOK has done pretty much nothing. Also, oil capitol of Norway (Stavanger) lost 25K jobs in the downturn is now back to 2.9% unemployment... virtually 0 in other words. Recovery in offshore investments (at the top 250Billion NOK) is starting to increase from a base of 150Billion NOK this year. That will grow stronger in the year towards 2021-22. NOK in my humble view is a screaming buy but the market hasn´t figured out the difference between Sweden (housing market issue - but then not if you look at OMX indexes for housing) and the Swedish Krona vs the Norwegian Krone. It also follows a lack of recovery in all commodity-based currencies since the downturn but that is due to change with EURO printing coming to an end. In face that EURNOK is another cross to profit from for improved NOK..
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