OK, it's probably a Lotto Ticket. But IMO one with a monstrous chance of 80% if price trades within the Pitchfork. As we now, price has a 80% chance to reach the Center-Line.
So, it's a Lotto Ticket with a good RIsk to Reward. Nothing more, nothing less.
I'm in CHPT since over 1 year and got clapped. Ever since I was watching for any sign of a potential recovery. Nothing was showing on my radar.
But now, I see a Volume that reminds me of a "Final Puke". Everyone who was long has to be scared out, before the Whales step in. Whales only buy Food for cheap.
Is it cheap now? Depends on how you look at CHPT. Technically, I would say yes. Fundamentally I would say it's probably crap?
Here's what I get from my fundamental Screener:
"Overall CHPT gets a fundamental rating of 2 out of 10. We evaluated CHPT against 88 industry peers in the Electrical Equipment industry. Both the profitability and financial health of CHPT have multiple concerns. CHPT is valued quite expensive... ....but it does show an excellent growth."
This last bit of the fundamental evaluation tells me, it's not dead yet. And who knows what they have in their back to recover? (SECULATION!!!).
The Mansfield Indicator is clearly showing, that this Stock is way weaker than the S&P500. BUT - It starts to curl up...
I have no clue what this Analysis is worth it. But I know what I see in the Volume and the recent Weeks drop.
So, that's it for my Coffee-Ground reading.
I am long the Stock, and I love the thrill it gives me for a cheap Lotto Ticket to a potential 1000% trade §8-)
What ever you do with it, I'm not responsible. This is no trading advice. You will loose money! Don't follow my Analysis. It's all BS and Coffee-Ground reading with no profound reasoning §8-)
Happy Christmas...oh, it's too soon...
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LOL! Worst timing ever hahaa... So, today the flush because of some company leader issues. No problem - I sell Puts & Calls if possible.
Y.W. @MyCryptoParadise_Nathan, Have you subscribe on my Website? There you get a lot of free Material. Check it out §8-)
Hitman47code
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That is the best analysis in human terms; Lottery ticket; it could turn out to become nothing, or they (all) could be winning tickets.
I think it has a bigger chance of winning then any lottery ticket, just make sure you don't put your life savings into it.
As I said on X - There is a new CEO ( So, there are new chances )
But I would love to see CHPT mature in several ways - and one of them is a quarterly earnings report. Let CHPT show us where these expenses come from [and more importantly (!)] Let them show us they can make money by (for instance) not expanding for one quarter.
The latest news was : 'Revenue is down (significantly)' Now, that is my concern .. That does not tell me what I need to hear
We have to see of hear they can become profitable, despite (growing) expenses (on expansion) Revenue decline is NOT a good sign.
Personally: I have set an alert at $1.60 That is when I will (probably) buy some lottery tickets :)
Be safe & have a good weekend for now!
Hitman47code
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@Hitman47code, I would say they need new chargers (that are cheaper and more reliable). I know they do not want to hear that, but Tesla is selling those [and yes, I have asked them on X if they could valuate going down that road]. Now.. let's think the unthinkable; If CHPT fails.. is there a chance they will be purchased by someone else ? That could (or should) be our bottom line - the base value for our lottery-tickets -
In that case; It is important to know if they actually own more then licensing agreements or leases.. A.K.A. Is there some base-value in the company that might convince other companies (like Tesla or.. a group of OEM's or.. another EV-Charge provider) to purchase (or [very unlikely] integrate) the Chargepoint's assets ?
I will try to look into that over the weekend!
Tr8dingN3rd
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@Hitman47code, Thanks a lot for your great Brain-Food. "If CHPT fails.. is there a chance they will be purchased by someone else ?" ...already thought about that, but had no Idea. To be serious, I don't know the company and what their core business really is.
If, for example, they have chargers and corresponding stations around the USA, then I would say, it's not their technology that it is interesting for a takeover, but their stations...the "ground" where they are. So, TSLA could be interested in taking over their "Chairs", just to replace them by TESLA's one Charger. That's what I would do ;-)
Their assets a as per 31-07-2023 are reported to be 275,17 million $ - From that they calculated a goodwill off 216,1 million $ So [worst case scenario] without the goodwill that sums up to ~ 59 million $
It's current market cap = $ 1,14 billion.
By the looks of that, it seems they mainly only have leases for their charging locations (not ownership) In the early days (prior to March 2023] their locations where not (really) carefully selected, but based on applications from big(ger) residential- / office- buildings (rural areas). And then some more 'public accessible' [shopping or highway] fast charge locations.
If it goes south, it might goes fast..
On the other hand; They where looking for ways (and expected) to lower operating expenses for q4 2023 And then again, they have announced only last week; that revenue would be down from estimated $150-165 million to $108-113 million (28-31%)
Now; IF they have actually managed to lower expanses - CHPT is (f)actually oversold (by ~17,55% + the % of the lowered expanses). if they could not, the current price actually seems to be quite reasonable..
I might still join you here buddy, but only when my set price alerts notify me.
It's a little gamble, but it might pay off.
The new CEO = new chances + a backup will be the sales pitch from Rick Wilmer, even during disappointing numbers @ the earnings call ~ March 2024
Thanks again & Keep us posted on CHPT!
Tr8dingN3rd
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@Hitman47code, Thanks Mate, great insights. Especially since I'm mostly clueless about the fundamentals. I'm a TA from my Heart and only focus on that.
Of course, I'll be updating the Charts whenever I see something in my Coffee-Ground ;-)
Hitman47code
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@Tr8dingN3rd, I actually might join you in the lottery soon. Turn out CHPT has a Call set for December 6th *(not March - sorry for my mistake earlier)
So rapid movement could come earlier then expected :)
A way, good luck Mr. N3rd :) & Thanks again
Tr8dingN3rd
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@Hitman47code, Ahhh...I'm thrilled §8-) Thanks very much for the update. T'care out there!
Hitman47code
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@Tr8dingN3rd, Tomorrow is D-day. All goes according to plan so far (thanks btw)
If you are holding into earnings (I'm not yet fully decided) - I wish you or us the best.