claydoctor
Long

UMTI is for me - GOING LONG OIL

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
136 18 2
Going in to UWTI             , it is time for the oil             bounce. Don't really care if I get the absolute bottom, going Long for the long haul here. The EURUSD             pair is ready to continue rend strong up, dollar has to come down, why? Because the FED knows the strong dollar is crippling small oil             based economy nations, mid cap oil             in the US, and every leveraged oil             company with debt, mutli national corporations,... I could go on and on, so the charts are calling for this fundamental; change, super cycle demands it too ( commodities ). And if any of these rumors of war actually ignite, (China is massing troops on the korean border now?) some shipping lanes, oil             fields, or other oil             production related thing will be crippled. Also, big cash is just chomping at the bit to long oil             , they really can't wait, like it is burning a hole in their pocket, so when the buy signal happens, for real this time, it is going to be a whopper. I want in before that happens, even if we go a bit lower from here, we simply cannot go much lower. Demand may not increase, but I think supply will sooner than people think. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.
Let's see if we get it!
I went long today.
(Part of a pair trade to close the 5555% spread between oil and S&P500 hehe)
Nice chart!
Reply
claydoctor IvanLabrie
Big OIL M&A today, and just heard Cramer say maybe slumberge thinks low for oil not much lower. That is BIG money, the biggest sending a BUY SIGNAL. They could have bought back their stock, but bought a company instead to be more competitive, and single solution, meaning they are gearing up for the next wave of growth and demand (possible due to lower supply) rather than being defensive. Maybe not tomorrow, but soon. I don't trade currencies, but use them as indicators. BUT IF I DID I would be going long the EURUSD. It pairs with oil. And usually the USDJPY pair is inverse to oil, not always but most of the time, there are transition time frames, but long term that is historic fact. The FED CANNOT RAISE RATES THIS YEAR FOR A LOT OF REASONS, meaning dollar down, oil up. One more thing... conspiracy theories abound... nothing like a war to stimulate world economies bordering on the brink of deflation (caused by oil going too low) or in it, and the price of oil.
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO claydoctor
Excellent insights. I agree, it's highly likely that this is the outcome of September's events.
+1 Reply
Also, this chart aligns with the commodity super cycle.
Reply
Sorry: that should UWTI, should check my spelling before posting
Reply
Any stop loss?
Reply
claydoctor timwest
going naked long here. but watching this daily for a big red sell signal, if any for a while, to take profits. Even then I will buy on that dip. I thought about adding to positions today, even after the big jump, but held back having allocated enough in the first place (30%) . The overshoot of the horizontal long term support was a tell i think, and now that we are heading back to it as resistance, if we blow through that and it becomes support, I think we go much higher, with "everyone" announcing that was the bottom. I think the world economies and way too many big money managers need and want higher oil prices. Good GDP number today didn't hurt either. I think it can and will go higher even if the dollar continues to rise a bit more until it tops. The XOP and XLE sectors are just loving this. I see other commodities liking this move too, but what happened to Gold? I took some GLD calls today, and thinking there may be a metals laggered delay there.
Reply
But seems like Dollar bounced back today.
Reply
DXY
Reply
see above comment.
Reply
Can you comment on UWTI decay over long haul?
Reply
Not totally sure I understand your meaning here. I think we saw the big buy signal today, historic actually. And we will see higher highs but not as dramatic. For me this is a long term play, so I will ride the hill and valleys, since I think the credit faults will be avoided with an increase in price, and help is on the way dear, i.e. venezula today asking for help, and they will get it, why... BECAUSE OF COURSE, ALL TOGETHER NOW, THE OIL INDUSTRY IS JUST TOO BIG TO FAIL. Where have I heard that before. The only thing the oil industry needs is higher prices. So I believe either fundamentally or artificially, they will get it. Nothing like a war or two to increase the price of oil, i.e. China massing troops for a war with south korea, or maybe japan over the island disputes, and what else but oil rights. Oil, Oil, Oil, the powerful game played by tycoons and kings and queens.
Reply
dp claydoctor
My question is much more simple, in fact. All those derivatives of WTI, like UCO or UWTI are decaying in time, i.e. given WTI constant, those derivatives will decay in time.
Reply
Of course, by default, by long UWTI I mean probably couple of weeks, and watching daily for a break in the trend, but here the new trend once it is established is our friend.
Reply
Thanks, great chart! Fundamentally, I was a bit confused by such a fast turn around in oil (and as such i got clobbered expecting a quick turn back down). USD rose along with oil. Wednesday's EIA showed increase in stock, oil brushed it off. I am starting to think it likely that this increase in oil's price is going to give the Feds the break they needed to squeeze in a rate hike in September as pathetic as that hike may be... Technically, I am keeping an eye on early 2009 price levels, am still very bearish oil and am eyeing 48.5-49.5 as a great area to lay out sales again.
Reply
claydoctor smitheric1970
There is some artificial motivation in this rise for sure. Maybe when it has had enough of whatever effect they desired, it will stall or dip back down a bit. The rise must be credible to be believed and turn the bears off their trade though or it would have been meaningless. Inflation has got to be "named" in the media, and it will take some doing to do that, Gold finally took its cue. This run, may not have the quick and huge rises at it has, but it has to have legs, so I don't expect a turn back down anytime soon. 50 will be a big number to hit as resistance, since this is not a fundamental move... neither supply nor demand has changed dramatically.
Reply
claydoctor claydoctor
Paradigm shift here. Fundamentals could not do it. So, it was needed, it is happening, and it will save small nations from bankruptcy. Just a thought, we could look back on this change as huge for the world economies, which is "too big to fail".
Reply
Excellent points. I would still expect heavy distribution at the 49.5 level. A ranged area would be nice just to let the smoke clear. I am expecting the DX to decline after a rate hike and to see somewhat of a break in the DX CL correlation as I also believe CL will fall to new lows over the next year. I think small and large nations are in for some trouble. Ya I'm one of those gloom and doom guys... :) I'm very actively trying to work short oil, short equities, long Yen and long Gold into my long term models.

I enjoy your work Clay, it keeps me on my toes!
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out