Results of OPEC meeting: oil prices fall is almost inevitable

On June 22-23, OPEC met in Vienna. The main issue that was on the agenda was the increase in oil production.

Recall, Russia and Saudi Arabia have taken the initiative to increase oil production. In the last report, we reviewed three possible scenarios. Actual results are something between the compromise and the initiative of Russia (production growth of 1.5 million b / d). So, it was decided to increase production by 1 million bbl per day. This, of course, is not a complete refusal from OPEC +, but in general is a very strong negative signal for the oil market. You do not need to be a big expert on the oil market to understand what the sharp increase in supply in the market leads to. Of course, to the drop-in prices on it. The reverse situation was observed after OPEC + reduced production. The price of oil has risen sharply. And we do not see a single reason why this time the basic laws of the economy should fail.

Rather, judging by the semi-panic reaction of the opponents of production growth (almost every country has its own opinion on the results of the meeting and the size of the production growth), they suffered a serious defeat. It should be noted that the increase in production is beneficial primarily to Russia and Saudi Arabia, because they can increase it. And countries like Venezuela, Libya, Iran and others have problems with it. As a result, they risk losing market share.

Summary. On the oil market are throwen out additional and very serious volumes. We consider this as an excellent occasion for sales.