JohnKicklighter
Short

Crude Oil Looks to Close at 6-Year Lows, OVX Slow to Rise

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
350 2 6
Despite hitting multi-year lows on crude prices, the CBOE's volatility index doesn't seem to be too concerned about the implications. Perhaps we are reverting to this indicators more fundamental nature - activity level - rather than a semi-proxy for direction.
thx for sharing..here is my view :-)


Nearly all views i read on this platform are bullish @ that level - many think about a double bottom as a trend reversal.
But dipping the former Pivot LOW is not yet enough to signal a trend reversal. Perhaps the exspected Rebound (dead cat bounce) is just good for scalping. (My maximal target for a possible Rebound is the 38,2 fibo (38,85-61,55) - but i don`t exspect a Rebound from this Niveau, i exspect a Rebound when crude will reach ist s falling green Support line @ 38.75
And yes, the RSI is oversold but still without any buying Signal, and yes, we have seen a selloff without any Rebound since the high @ 57.7$ But all WMAs are directed downwards - without any sign for a trendchange.

The useage of many WMAs or EMAs is the so called "rainbow-concept"
An important concept of this trading approach is the so called "spin" ! This refers to the trend reversal in itself or the time in which the Rainbow rotates . Due to the construction of the Rainbow as a "multi- cross" system does not generate this a single signal, such as the breakthrough to a new high / low but needs time to unfold again. With this concept you have a trend-following system, but also the Advantage that you can catch sustainable trend reversals (with a time lag - but you can minimize that lag, because of the use of short timeframes composed with Long time Frames)
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Or perhaps the not too fearful longs will get stopped as oil falls sharply next.
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