AristotelCostel
Short

Does Oil lead the move on EU?

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
I've just published a similar divergence forming on the daily plot of EURUSD             .
Oil             has already finished its fourth wave and started the fifth wave.

Fundamentals?

Debt deflation => carry trade reversal => strong dollar
Hi Thanks for sharing your chart analysis.

You could well be right. Or rather EURUSD might have led the drop as it is already at the previous low and Oil has yet to drop to its respective low. Hope you won't mind me commenting.
+1 Reply
Yep. Overlaying the two shows you are right.
However, the euro is not quite the ruble. :) For the ruble, cheap oil means Russia's economic bust. For the euro, cheaper oil signals debt deflation / strong dollar. If we will see this series of 3-4-5 waves on the euro like in oil, I think the answer to my question is positive, but not for the euro. :D
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DanV MOD AristotelCostel
Yes, I follow what you mean. However, I am not sure how this cheap oil will impact EUR other than in general imply USD strength as you suggest.
+1 Reply
Basically, the idea of oil leading the euro is not mine.
Tom McClean noticed it by shifting the oil price with 3 weeks. (Google Crude Oil Leads the Euro)

Though, his oil-leading based prediction that euro will bottom on February 18th failed, whereas mine did not. :)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xdBFeY1aNVY/VOouc1M91AI/AAAAAAAAA00/USDgrN4A7WI/s1600/EURUSD_21februarie2015.png

And then, I've seen this divergence possibly repeated on the euro.
Reply
DanV MOD AristotelCostel
I see the correlation analysis of Tom McClean. He is correct in concept, but one cannot expect the relationship will hold so rigidly as he suggest. Hence his call for bottom in Feb might well have failed . There has to be some allowances in this type of analysis for cycles to truncate or stretch.

However, in the intermediate term I suspect DXY to completed is current cycle and then at least make reasonable retracement which is when both Oil and EURUSD could form short term low if not reversal. IN that way I feel it is more beneficial to use correlation and potential divergence in related instruments.
+1 Reply
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