IvanLabrie

USDCAD: Crude as an indicator and the importance of fundamentals

NYMEX:CL1!   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
1064 15 10
Tomorrow we have two key pieces of news that will be released, which can affect the direction USDCAD             will favor.
I'm looking at the triangle at the top, and the current triangle in Crude\s 4th wave (if my count is correct).

There is no clear setup yet, but it might be worth watching to see how the market reacts to both Stephen S. Poloz's (Bank of Canada's governor) and Janet Yellen's speeches.
When both technical and fundamental events align, we have the highest confidence setups.

I will update the chart with any trade setups I find.
If you're interested in joining my trading newsletter or private lessons, message me. I trade Forex, Equities and Commodities. Contact: skype @ ivanlabrie, PM here or QQ (2954487803).
jangseohee
2 years ago
snapshot
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IvanLabrie PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
Needs to go up once more...then more down.
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http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2015/02/inflation-control-consider-financial-stability/

No bad news really, so usdcad down...(while Yellen didn't give the bulls any baits today)
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tomburcap1
2 years ago
USDCAD long waiting to happen with oil. buy pullbacks to support.
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IvanLabrie PRO tomburcap1
2 years ago
It's one of my favorite pairs, right now, I'm on the fence, analysis tells me usd is a long after this correction, and that the Bank of Canada statement overpowered the crude drop...it all boils down to Yellen's stance on rate hikes for the dollar.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/24/us-usa-fed-idUSKBN0LS0BD20150224

'Meeting by meeting basis' is a pretty bearish statement, but can also imply suprises ahead, and increased volatility in USD pairs.
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Trayectory is being respected so far. Let's see if we get a clear short at the top.
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docwesley90 IvanLabrie
2 years ago
How did you come up with this trajectory? If it is Elliot Wave analysis I didn't think it gave you actual trajectory's....also what is your view on CL as of now? Target going long and/or short? Thanks.
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IvanLabrie PRO docwesley90
2 years ago
A guess based on Elliott Wave, for the trayectory.
Time and price targets and support/resistance come from time at mode, which is Tim West's methodology.

Crude I think will keep falling, but right now it's hard to say since it's mostly moving sideways when I expected it to go up by this time.

Next week will probably help push usdcad either up or down (most likely up, but grinding its way to the top before correcting down)
We have interest rates decisions and important reports coming, like the non-farm payroll data, as well as the other news I detailed in my fundamental gbpusd chart.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
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I'm in.
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Interesting developments in crude and usdcad...Seems like we have incoming crude strength!
Check out my gbpcad charts, I opened a short position right now.
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Downtrend if close below 1.24.
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Updated crude count.
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Support right below, not much to do but wait here.
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My friend's jangseohee's chart is relevant here now:

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This is the completion of my fourth wave projection's C.
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