ChartForTheWin
Long

Measured Move in Crude Oil

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
Notes on chart. Playing the potential measured move in crude. Target for measured move $71.09 (Green line near top). I have an additional target based on my expectation that we break out of the channel of around $73.60 (red line at top). This move is negated at any point that we break below the Orange upward Channel. We are playing the trade both ways. Buying at bottoms- shorting at tops. I trade based on charts but do follow the news- here are the important factors in my mind outside of the chart. 1) The Iranian Nuclear Deal- The negotiations appear to be going back and forth but if they are not able to come to a deal then it will help this measured move. 2) Oil             data that comes out Tuesday afternoons (4:30) and Wednesdays (10:30) each week. 3) Rig count on Friday's at 1:00 4) The dollar index- Generally, as the dollar index             falls oil             rises. The dollar index             bounced against resistance and is now turning downward and I anticipate it will continue to fall. 5)The Markets- China has been getting crushed lately and as it plummets so does oil- we need China's market to rebound here with force in order for this measured move to play out. U.S. stock market- The S&P             has been flirting with the 200 day moving average this week, closing below it Thursday- Many people got burned when after the market closed a potential Greece deal was announced- market shot back above and remained strong all day today (7/10/15) closing well above the moving average and above an important resistance on the weekly. If the call is correct I would anticipate a huge gap up Monday in oil             getting us near $55 per barrel. I imagine many are not holding over the weekend as the last two Monday's there were large gaps downward. Perfect time for gap up right? Good Luck!
Hi there! Looking around in trading a bit, and I as checking around this site a bit and all these ideas people post. I have no actual experience in trading (and don't really want to get in ;) and I was looking at your chart yesterday and just now. So, idiotic question coming up. Since the price hasn't hit the 55$ area, what would someone like yourself do now? You note 'Tuesday at the latest', will you wait till then and if not use a different strategy?

Regards,
Daan
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ChartForTheWin DaanvanMeurs
Well in this case I got stopped out as soon as the market opened on the gap down- but fortunately it was minimal loss since I had a low average price. As you can see we opened up below the yellow line which has been charted to be the uptrend in the measured move- clearly broken. However, we are still above the bottom black support line (currently- the price that matters here is the closing price- so it can drop below the black line- but it would be broken if it opened or closed below the black line- currently I still believe the measured move can happen- but if this drops much more chances are looking more a more slim- For now I will wait and see what happens and reset my strategy. I was short bias once the bottom line broke- but now we are back on the upswing and as I type this Oil is at 52.27.
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