Notes on chart. Playing the potential measured move in crude. Target for measured move $71.09 (Green line near top). I have an additional target based on my expectation that we break out of the channel of around $73.60 (red line at top). This move is negated at any point that we break below the Orange upward Channel. We are playing the trade both ways. Buying at bottoms- shorting at tops. I trade based on charts but do follow the news- here are the important factors in my mind outside of the chart. 1) The Iranian Nuclear Deal- The negotiations appear to be going back and forth but if they are not able to come to a deal then it will help this measured move. 2) Oil
data that comes out Tuesday afternoons (4:30) and Wednesdays (10:30) each week. 3) Rig count on Friday's at 1:00 4) The dollar index- Generally, as the dollar index
rises. The dollar index
bounced against resistance and is now turning downward and I anticipate it will continue to fall. 5)The Markets- China has been getting crushed lately and as it plummets so does oil- we need China's market to rebound here with force in order for this measured move to play out. U.S. stock market- The S&P
has been flirting with the 200 day moving average this week, closing below it Thursday- Many people got burned when after the market closed a potential Greece deal was announced- market shot back above and remained strong all day today (7/10/15) closing well above the moving average and above an important resistance on the weekly. If the call is correct I would anticipate a huge gap up Monday in oil
getting us near $55 per barrel. I imagine many are not holding over the weekend as the last two Monday's there were large gaps downward. Perfect time for gap up right? Good Luck!