smitheric1970
Long

The Hormuz Straight Play

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
Potential 470 ticks: I am looking for a potential Long and Short play in Oil short term. I was recently bearish minded at 74.12 but following the price action this past week I believe we may have another run up coming potentially due to geopolitics involving the Hormuz straight. Trade on the chart is self explanatory based on 2014 Supply/Demand levels.

Note: If geopolitics do not heat up short term over the Hormuz Straight, then I believe prices will still test 75.3-75.6 this week; that would be a good level to take partial profits.

Long Entry: 73.82-74.12 (Entry is active)
Target: 76.49
Short Entry: 76.49
Target: 74.12


@kate25 We can rename the chair pattern the "Hormuz Straight Pattern" if this plays out. :)

https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...

If this does happen then I believe prices may enter a long term approximately 5 dollar sideways extended range, hitting strong supply levels but waiting 2 or 3 months for a larger pullback as heavy puts start to decay similar to the Nov 2016-March 2017 Range.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...

Good trading all!
Comment: 4 Hour chart view of the same 2014 structure Supply/Demand Levels:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/sna...
Comment: Of course the potential path laid out on that chart is pie in the sky at this point.
Order cancelled: On further analysis I've decided to cancel this trade before the weekend opens. I will republish - but only include the long view as with current geopolitics, I believe there is the possibility for prices to press above 76.5 and not pullback. So, in short, I DO believe we will see prices press up to 76.5 so a long at current price targeting 76.5 is a good trade in my opinion. However, I am now seeing potential for prices to continue pressing up with potential for 80-82 prior to a sizable pullback.

A new chart will be published tomorrow prior to market open.
Comment: This is my updated publish - much more bullish grind up

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CL1!/u...

Comments

Let me put a couple charts up.
Reply
@kate25, Yes, let me know what you are seeing
Reply
kate25 smitheric1970
This is a monthly view where we might say price is at resist - as long as resist holds
Reply
kate25 smitheric1970
@smitheric1970, weekly we could say price is inbetween levels
Reply
kate25 smitheric1970
@smitheric1970, On the daily if we think monthly is at resist we could say this may be emergent supply
Reply
kate25 smitheric1970
@smitheric1970, Momentum is up so if we think this is emergent supply we need to be cautious as price may carve through that monthly resist
Reply
@kate25, Thanks Kate! We look at the market in the same manner! I use very similar markers, looking at what created previous buying or selling climaxes creating those Supply/Demand exhanges or Inflections. I mark an inflection if prices have 'closed' higher on at least 2 bars above a previous 'high'; after a bar in a series does not 'close' higher, I see the sellers have taken over or created temporary equilibrium; and vice versa when prices fall. I use the same technique as you looking for older levels that created the original inflections; starting with Monthly, then weekly then daily, it is interesting to see how prices react. Around current price action, these are the monthly levels that I see in play: https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/w/WELDWxOX.png

And switching to a Weekly chart, where Prices have reacted to the monthly levels, these are the Weekly Inflections.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/f/fj8VXiwe.png

And so here we have the Supply/Demand Levels created:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/0/0APnppY5.png

The same levels on a Daily chart during the 2014 Crash:
There was some initial buying in the upper zone, but the lower zone quickly became supply:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/o/oZhjWPoj.png

And now the Current view on the Daily chart, you can see why I am looking up to the 80 level:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/x/XR5ChCtw.png
Reply
kate25 smitheric1970
@smitheric1970, That is interesting - I like how you determined the SD zones
Reply
Someone mentioned my (mis)spelling of 'Strait' - Straight was supposed to be a play on words based on words based on the possible 'straight' run up pattern in the second chart.

Are we straight now? :)
Reply
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