NYMEX:CL1! LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
Will they raise or wont they? numbers friday may be huge, and maybe only because there are few major data points to move that needle before the September meeting. I think not, even though they should have already, and why? Because if they do... dollar strengthens yet again, hurting earnings of multinational companies (aka, blue chips), sending lower yet. But the US Govt needs oil prices higher so the save our climate theme can make economic sense, which does not make sense at low oil and gas prices, i.e. the current hot sales of trucks and suvs. I used to think they should raise so they will. Now anything is possible, even waiting until 2016, because if they raise, I think it is not as baked in as everyone thinks, and it will hurt , which they need to stay high for their political agenda. Iran, once that deal is done, will flood the market with oil , creating more demand problems and oversupply, which should drive prices down, but... so they might not raise rates just to hold oil prices steady, or try to. So many moving parts, so hard to predict. But, if you trust the charts, knowing these things listed may be a tenth of what is involved, we go higher from here. Again,I have no clue why, but you just have to trust the charts. IMO
as you say - It is hard to say... companies can't run with these low prices forever. There's been major cuts in the oil industry already and what we need is consolidation of the smaller companies which supply will ultimately start to diminish. Short term, we may continue to see downward pressure. Long long term - end of 2015 and evening by Q2 2016, we'll likely see the cost cutting take into effect and see oil back up to 70.