Oh_If_Only

Trade the Price! Hold Long Until Trend Break

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
WTI Jun18 CL1! 20 Apr $68.06

May closed Friday with a final OI of 3.7k contracts.
June volume was down 140k on the day and OI reduced 3.1k

Generally volume will trade lower for the remainder of this month then start to pick up early May and increase leading into contract close on May 22.
So I would expect price to fade during this month, in the absence of an event, and then rally during May, but remember everything is relative. So fades and rallies will be around significant support and resistance and what price is doing - Not supposed to do.

Right now, the uptrend is holding. My drawn rectangle is the activity area. Price needs to break and close below the uptrend line to suggest down side. Otherwise it is still up. It is dangerous to pre-empt a change in trend! Don't do it! wait until the upward sloping line breaks with a close.

If it does break, first support is at $66.60 then the swing low at $65.56.
Fibs are at (69.56 - 61.81):= 7.75 * 0.5 := $65.68; $64.77; $66.60 which align with Supports.
Above major resistance is at a stratospheric $73.75, with secondary resistance at $69.70 and a significant $71.30

I favour the downside initially, but for once, I will follow my own advice. I have outlined our trading strategy and plans in an earlier post - trade the channel.
Now you know what I know. Trade using your brains and what you see, not emotion nor opinion.
... just another 2c worth ..
Comment: Just realised I jumped the gun a bit. June is still on CL2! The above chart is CL1!
CL2! should become CL1! Monday.
My quoted price was futures last $68.06 but settlement (cash) is $68.40 on June.
Also, forward markets are in backs i.e. Cash > Futures
This normally means commercials will liquidate spot month and buy future(s) months (roll yield) - carry cost is dearer - no point in storing oil if I can buy it cheaper (or at least for the same) later - maybe. The expectation is that futures will rise to meet cash not vice versa.
Also CoT "open" reportable longs rose above shorts during week of April 10. Producer longs > shorts and so are Funds.
Right ... now you should be totally confused!
The last snippet is that current inventories are about one days worth!
... just my updated ("scary") 2c worth ...
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