NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
Hi friends, today I want to analyze one news that excited and scared people - this is news about the coronavirus that appeared in China.

If you like my analyzes, click like.
In the first place of this week is the news about the coronavirus epidemic in China, which took the whole world by surprise.
There is no such person who spoke about this news. But all this news did no good, except to create panic among the people.
Therefore, after studying the mechanism and selecting all the news, I give only the necessary and important conclusions.
I must say I'm not a doctor, and I have nothing to do with medicine. In this regard, I will focus on other economic and political consequences of this epidemic.
Because the economic and political consequences may be higher than the medical consequences of this epidemic.

First, I want to give you some brief information.
A coronavirus epidemic has emerged from the 13 million-strong city of Wuhan in China. According to scientists, the main reason for this epidemic is the Chinese habit of eating all moving animals. The Chinese boast: "we eat all quadrupeds except the table, all flying except the plane, all floating except the boat." 
In my opinion, this custom will not lead to anything good. It was revealed that specific people were infected with the coronavirus epidemic from bats.
At the moment, most countries do not have testing devices for accurate diagnosis, let alone an anti-epidemic drug. Such devices have been researched and produced only in China and the United States. In most countries, such devices have not yet been delivered. Chinese scientists study the genetic structure of this virus and distribute their research results to all countries.

According to experts in the field of medicine, it takes 6-8 months to find antiepidemic agents. Then it needs to be tested for 6-8 months. Only after this will there be a drug available for production, until then there are no drugs that treat the disease.
It turns out that in order to find a cure, we need at least 1.5 years. Now let's see how dangerous this is for us. As mentioned above, there is no cure for this epidemic yet. And the next 1-2 years will not be either.

Despite the fact that there are no drugs for this epidemic, the statistical danger of this epidemic is very low. Today, in the 13 million city of Wuhan, there are only 8 thousand infected people. As for the whole world, the number of cases of this infection is 9776 people, of which 213 people died. For comparison with the usual flu in the world, at least 5-10% of the total population get sick every year, and about 300-400 thousand people die. This epidemic is transmitted from person to person by airborne droplets. This makes this disease dangerous in densely populated countries. In countries where the population density is small, the risk of infection becomes lower. I told you about the medical and statistical dangers of the coronavirus epidemic. 
Now let's go over the economic and political dangers of this epidemic.

The economic and political danger of this epidemic will be much higher than the medical danger. If you pay attention to economic news, you will get the impression that it is war news . The Chinese securities market continues to fall. 


The gross domestic product of the Chinese economy will fall by at least 1-1. 5% and if the Chinese economy weakens, it will have a very strong impact on the world economy.
The very first can have a negative impact on the price of oil and metals.
Since mid-January, when the coronavirus epidemic began, the global securities market and commodity exchanges have continued to fall 

The price of oil fell by 20% 




Copper fell 15%


If we take the last 100 years of historical statistics, the economic crisis occurs every 7-9 years. And more than 10 years have passed since the last crisis of 2008.


 


Therefore, it seems that the world is facing another crisis. If the price falls below $ 40, the state of the budget of countries that depend on the price of oil will deteriorate sharply.



And if we take into account that part of the budget of these countries is spent on social spending, then there are great doubts that the government will find the means to fulfill its social obligations.
Where do governments find funds?
Of course from our pocket
We will have to stop many social payments and devalue national currencies. This will further reduce the social situation of the population. And it can cause discontent of the people, which is already on the verge. And in this way, many countries can go to a political crisis. And God knows what will happen at the end of it all. Of course, all this may not be.
Some even believe that too much attention paid by the media is both an ideological and information war of the United States against China. Although, personally, I even if I do not believe in it, but I believe that in the modern world everything can be. Continuing to talk about the coronavirus epidemic, I would like to draw attention to two or three other small things from which we should take an example .
The first is the effectiveness and discipline of the Chinese government. See how many measures they took specifically and without unnecessary panic in the shortest possible time. They showed themselves as a state system that knows what to do.
The second is the openness of the Chinese government this time. Since the beginning of the epidemic, the Chinese government has convened the World Health Organization . Without hiding any information. Hold press conferences on time.
Third , we can see how developed the Chinese economy is, and we can find out by looking at a 1,000-bed hospital built in 48 Hours. Amazing.

And the last thing I noticed was the cohesion and decency of the Chinese people. If you look at the 13 million city of Wuhan. Where the government has imposed a quarantine, people continue their lives without going out and committing any hooliganism.
Looking at these examples, we can learn a lot of good things from them, if we don't take the bad ones. 

As you have noticed, everything is interconnected in the world. If one country sneezes in one place, the whole world will become infected. These words are said not only in a medical sense, but we live in a world where Economics and politics are closely linked and have a great influence on each other.

Many people asked me my opinion about the coronavirus. That's my opinion
If you like my analysis, please like it.

Best regards EXCAVO
Feb 03
Comment: My long term prediction for oil
Feb 03
Feb 03
Feb 03
Feb 04

Comments

There are only few laboratories on earth, who operate with stage IV diseases and viruses. China build one in Wuhan. It should be investigated, if this is a coincidence or they really f*cked up there. We are human, we make mistakes. But those laboratories are built to prevent things to escape...
+2 Reply
@grey_goose, on point, one of the reasons why they decided to build it was the 2002-2003 SARS epidemic. But another thing is that this whole scenario is actually too perfect for the US as it's choking both China and Iran at the same time.
+1 Reply
AdrianZieniewicz AdrianZieniewicz
@AdrianZieniewicz, Meanwhile the biggest companies in the American Stock Exchange have just presented their quarterly results shrugging off much of the fear from the indices.
Reply
I TOTALLY disagree with your analyzes because THE TABLE DO NOT MOVE! :-)
+2 Reply
EXCAVO FatInvestor
@FatInvestor, haha
+1 Reply
very good bro
+1 Reply
EXCAVO bahavarelias
@bahavarelias, thank you
+1 Reply
As this has happened, China has shown that it is ready for any bad thing, both the government and the Chinese people are working together to get rid of the virus.
If this were to happen in my country, it would not be clear what would happen to the people.
The discipline of the Chinese is incredible.
Thanks EXCAVO for your good analysis
+1 Reply
EXCAVO ahmad9783
@ahmad9783, Thank you
Reply
Hi, brother, I am a Chinese, have been looking at your analysis, see today your understanding of the outbreak is not very comprehensive, I said in my opinion, the outbreak can scale with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003, because of the infectious period just in time for the Spring Festival migration, transporting passengers up to 3 billion people a year, today is rising, not peak, behind only on February 15th will peak, then guess is 300000 the number of infections, death will be more than 2000 people, even if the outbreak is so serious, China has been believed that the army and management, the people won't panic,Supermarket to buy food, life style and vegetables government also does not allow to rise in price and the stock up, but the economy will be affected, especially in manufacturing in the breeding, but the financial impact is not big, a-share market today (SHCOMP) fell 300 points, is one of the biggest decline in 23 years, for money, the stock market fell money naturally to notes and so on the afternoon of BTC is A sword above, the price will be hope can help to you
+1 Reply
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