You can see the dramatic fall in the "stock market tax = crude oil prices"...
But have crude oil prices turned the corner?
Buy crude oil and short the stock market: $ for $
Tim
Friday, August 29, 2014 4:36PM EST
Comments
timwest
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Now it is even more extreme. If you take another look, this trade might be worth trying again.
Mr_DL
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Right now is the time to buy UCO at 31.86 or so.
Should give a 2-3 day rally
Babar
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i like your charts a lot but i can't understand the technicals nor fundamentals supporting your theory on this one. Lately OIL has been having some negative correlation with Stocks, same with COPPER vs Stocks. I consider those two to be the pulse of the market. They are certainly not supporting stock prices lately. With Copper hitting its 3$ Pivot price range and Oil not catching a lot of upside regardless of Higher highs and a supposedly healthy economy this can only mean one thing : Stocks will catch up soon. Or maybe are they strong enough to keep pulling Copper prices and OIl demand up for another while and prevent them from breaking lows....Maybe, but in that case i would continue to buy Oil on stock dips and never be on the lookout of a negative correlation unless there is somekind of of fundamental reason, which i can't seem to see nowadays. Maybe i am totally wrong and in that case i would be pleased to know why. Thks for sharing. And another important thing, Crude OIL has been above short term support on monthly chart and incapable of maintaining its course north thus breaking lows and prices are now below this pivot, 10/10 this is failed breakout and prices continue to correct slowly but surely, until broader market does too and this catches some speed.
timwest
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Have you seen the other charts that I have published on crude oil versus stock prices? There are some distinct patterns that are useful. I'm sorry my recent post doesn't appear to make sense. My post is simply to point out the divergence between crude and the S&P500. See what you think of the other charts I have posted, then please feel free to reply again. Thanks!
Victor.Y.F
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SPX500 should reach 2025, but oil have no correlation with spx500 in stead of having correlatiio with USD/CAD, negative.
Victor.Y.F
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Saw your chart before, SPX does have correlation with SPX500 but SPX will fall from 2200 soon
Victor.Y.F
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I'm sorry. SPX does have correlation with Oil.
timwest
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Keep in mind how imprecise the calculation of "correlation" is. It is not the best way to measure if two markets move together. Two markets can have a lead-lag pattern and not show up well with Correlation coefficients. Just something to keep in mind. I like to do "overlays" and see if two markets do move somewhat in synchrony or not. Thanks for your comments.