NYMEX:CL1!   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
770 32 5
Trade – 5% Long at 48.50.

I think the bottom is in for this week and it could also be the bottom for a while even if 25 is eventually reached.

Reasonning:
13 waves down with wave 13 target at 47/43 (reached band high this morning).
7th month down (2008/2009 was also 6months and rebound on 7th)
Last wave is already longer in time than wave 11.
47/45 is Long term linear and logarithmic support (VERY difficult to break below on first touch.
I have the impression SP500             wants to go back up and can’t see that happening if further dives in WTI right now… Implicit deduction: WTI could have bottomed.

>>> today could be a large volume up day.

It could be wrong, the sizing is nimble enough to sustain excesses or even a dive (which I see unlikely).
Mickette
2 years ago
Bonne Année 2015 Jacine!
snapshot
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YaKa PRO Mickette
2 years ago
Happy New Year...
I keep seeing those butterfly.. I don t get it, can't you place these things anywhere with random results?...
or are the ratios golden ones?
1.886?
0.782?
3.72?
are those predictive ratios or just the picture as it is and you could draw the same thing with different ratios if wti falls another 20%?
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Mickette YaKa
2 years ago
First of all I was speculating an "regular" extension to 1.618 XA end of June 2014. And we got it.
Now 1.886 XA is exactly on an main supporting ascending trend line. Next CRAB BULL extension would be 2.0 XA - nearly 40.00 - a very cruxial price support level in the past.
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jangseohee Mickette
2 years ago
Glückliches Neues Jahr 2015 to you, Mickette
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YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
ok thx.
so what are the key targets again.
1.886 is always key?
than 2?
than ?
is there a ratio that fits 25 straight?
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Mickette YaKa
2 years ago
2.24 ... ;-)
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YaKa PRO Mickette
2 years ago
Mickette,

Are those ratios stable: 1.886, 2, 2.24...
what is the relation between all those ratio on the butterfly/crab? I am not sure i get a sense for the stability of the approach, it seems whatever config, you could place a butterfly that fits. Can you elaborate on the method?
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Mickette YaKa
2 years ago
" it seems whatever config, you could place a butterfly that fits..."
I have no interest anymore to elaborate.
+1 Reply
YaKa PRO Mickette
2 years ago
Mickette, no offense, i geniunly dont get how it works. I see many people using it so there is probably a benefit ... No need to elaborate though, have a good day.
+1 Reply
jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
every one would be an expertise in each type of TA, for Mickette, his formidable weapon in Harmonic/Gartley.
I have no clue about it so i wont bother to ask :-)
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YaKa PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
That s probably what I should have done:)
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Mickette YaKa
2 years ago
Hey both of you! Continue to draw lines on log scale charts ;-)
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jangseohee Mickette
2 years ago
well Yacine emphasise that both linear and log are important
if i am paid in TV, i would definitely post with these two scale in one chart :-)
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YaKa PRO Mickette
2 years ago
:( I probably missed an opportunity to learn something new.. I was eager though:)
+1 Reply
jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
My IQ is only 50, which is enough for trend, trendchannel, chart pattern, candle stick pattern, MAs + indicator :-)
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jangseohee YaKa
2 years ago
No offense, i only talk about my case.
I am moron when it comes to Fibo, Harmonic, Gartley, Tsunami Wave.... i gave up :-)
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Mickette jangseohee
2 years ago
Erfolgreiches Jahr 2015 für Dich, lieber Jangseohee! :-)
+1 Reply
I think it is still too early. Fundamentals still not on oil's side, and the crunch on US shale will continue. There is a bit of support for a bounce, but there is no bottom. I look for WTI to reach $43 in the near-term.
WTI Near "Support" While Sentiment Still To The Downside
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YaKa PRO CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
43 is next door - very possible
The final bottom could be much lower indeed - maybe 24.
Interesting information about shale. You may be right then.
I like to understand fundamentals and what drives the price lower or higher but from experience: fundamentals do not give you the bottom or the top.. At the top, news are great. At the bottom, news are ugly.
The bottom could be lower but I do not expect to read positive analysis at the bottom.
i think there should be a rebound from 47/43. we do agree more or less.
the question is: what will be the magnitude of this rebound and its length in time.
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YaKa PRO YaKa
2 years ago
I add, bottom are sold and tops are bought. Not the contrary.
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CommoditiesTrader YaKa
2 years ago
I agree with you. Unfortunately, traders look for that magic number that ignites liftoff, constantly going against the trend. I believe we could see 2008 lows if economic data continues to decline.
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CommoditiesTrader CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Fundamentals do not give a bottom or top, but it creates sentiment in my opinion. And trading against sentiment IMO is not easy nor sometimes wise.
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YaKa PRO CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Vast debate.

I think:
- Fundamentals are in full shape in the midth of a move.
- Then price drives sentiment. So I emphasize: at the bottom, the sentiment will be very bad and at the top very euphoric.

Then, it s a question of trading style.

If you are contrarian (I think i am, although i am trying to tune it down), you need to get used to do what your "model" is telling you and be used to hear most people say the contrary of you think/do....

If you are a trend follower, you wait for the move to be initiated and confirmed. But to do that well you need to act in the first third of the move... I see too many trendfollowers coming for the tail of a move when it appears comfortable to them (which often is where i start thinking reversal...).
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YaKa PRO CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
So here, my purchase is tiny in size as i am aware it may go to 43 or even to 25 (i dont believe straight but it is a possibility)... even in that very bad case: I would bear a negative -250bp when crude falls 50%, bearable....

if i am right, i have a quick move to 55/60 and i take 100bp profit.

From here although the daily moves prove you right every day, i become increasingly scared to bear short as any one day could be a large squeeze... I think there will be 7usd move up day soon.
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CommoditiesTrader YaKa
2 years ago
I am a trend follower, but I fully recognize that there are often opportunities to trade the opposite direction. I have been known to be long or short and play smaller moves synthetically through other means.

I initially went short above $74 on a trend break from 2008's high. I tend to have a unique approach to markets and analysis, but it's worked for me.

Que 2008
+1 Reply
YaKa PRO CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Ok. I ll read you with pleasure. Following you to see how you think/what trades you put on. Interesting chat.
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CommoditiesTrader YaKa
2 years ago
Absolutely. I love talking/debating ideas on markets. So many ways to approach markets and perspective. They're so dynamic the learning process never ends.
+1 Reply
YaKa PRO CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Not to forget. The best skill is luck.

I have been lucky often in the past:) Past performance does not guarantee future performance though.


Some golfer said one day: "the harder I practice, the luckier i get":)
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CommoditiesTrader YaKa
2 years ago
Lol to add to that: "Luck is the matter of preparation at the right time"
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YaKa PRO CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
ok. let's get prepared....
One thing is almost guaranteed: 2015 will not be boring.
There is energy and there will be great trading.
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jangseohee CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Hi Com trader, you mean this?
Consolidation about to end!
+1 Reply
CommoditiesTrader jangseohee
2 years ago
More or less lol. It's a wee bit amusing watching people on TV completely flabbergasted by oils descent. Personally, I think it was a matter of time.
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