Studied 2009, bottom, formation. If history repeats, then this may happen now. If yes, then spx500 would stay in this descending range and eventually reach its august 24th lows, with oil, then bounce like a rubber ball.
Comments
IDAPAGNOTTELLA1
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so I guess you changed you mind on the sp500? I remember you were very bearish a few weeks ago
claydoctor
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Have to admit this world is tied to oil. Not really, still bearish on spx500. Still think it is overvalued. 2009 was different correlation. Stocks came down with oil. This time a lag. High percentage risk shock to stock valuations if oil does this bouncing thing. Mindset, of reaching 2009 lows (33(, and even going lower could shock oil sector, and catch all those bulls going long with high volume. And if the new low breaks backs of mid cap high debt oil, with rates goiung up, making those loans even costly, could see a ripple effect of bancruptcies in mid cap oil, and if currency ratios, keep dollar going higher, which could happen, then very possible this crash could be related to all that, different causes than 2009. This bubble could be the QE unintended effects bubble, easy debt for way too long, created this bubble. we will see. still short spy until at least august 24 lows through march.