EXCAVO
Short

Why Crude oil will go to $ 20 per barrel (Cycles)

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
All arguments are my subjective opinion

1. In such a large amount of oil is necessary to nobody. Supply exceeds demand
2.Transition to electricity
3. Shale oil - another attempt at manipulation
4.Saudi Aramco - largest capitalization company in the world (another bad call for me)
Many fundamental arguments can be made, but this is a virtual trading chart and it has little to do with the real world. it is a world of financial markets. There are few arguments from financial markets:

1. This is a futures oil chart. the largest players in futures oil Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, City Bank
2. All of the world's oil is traded exclusively for dollars. this is called petrodollar. there were a couple of people who wanted to change this system, but these people are already dead. Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, Christophe de Margerie and possibly someone else.
therefore, oil is another instrument to strengthen the dollar. example for $ 100 now you can buy 2 barrels of oil and if the price is $ 20 you can buy 5 barrels of oil . The same story happened in 2014 when oil fell from $ 100 to $ 30. Saudi Arabia has been talking to the media for a year increasing oil production, as you understand Saudi Arabia does not participate in the pricing of oil prices, because we see a chart of futures oil on the market
All national currencies depreciated, and the dollar strengthened.
3. most likely these instrument will be used during the next fall of the US economy
4. We moving in downtrend channel
5. Cycles

Best Regards EXCAVO
Jan 08
Comment:

Related Ideas

Hello Bager, Very Good Chart. Consider the following -- July 2008 /February 2016 Correction is complete. Advance since Feb 2016 low will take us pass 77 on the way up to 95 region. Along the way there will be corrections but not below 42 region.
I don't know where the future demand (glut) will come from nor I know where the short supply (squeeze) will come from, but a combination of the two will.
Regardless, I like your posts.
Reply
I love your analyses! You are a smart man!
+1 Reply
EXCAVO MateuszP.Rydzik
@MateuszP.Rydzik, Thank you so much
Reply
This is really interesting, then the investment banks listed in point 1 will have a high share in Aramco.
They will do this from the corporate structure since the public part is scarce.
When prices hit the bottom, which I think corresponds to the end of the economic crisis.
There will be large investment banks in the closed section shares.
For this, the economic crisis should not originate from the United States, which I guess will not start from USA.
I strongly agree with the first movement in this idea.
I also agree that you will come to 33.76 in the long term values.
Thank you very much for your analysis!
Reply
@Noldo, Thank you my friend
+1 Reply
I see oil going higher first but ending up near your $20 eventually
+4 Reply
Be a nice short. :)
+1 Reply
it's because we're all driving Teslas duh....
+2 Reply
EXCAVO Sabibaby
@Sabibaby, yeah lol
Reply
nearly same
+1 Reply
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