It's no surprise that the oil market is as volatile as ever, following the ongoing trade war saga between the US and China. Yesterday, OPEC has released their report on future outlook of the market demand for the rest of 2019, which is BEARISH. They are helpless as demands are dropping, and the US shale supplier keep on continuing to pressure the price with flooding of supplies. On the other hand, the election of US is on the year 2020, which means that Trump would want to keep the prices low to keep his key voters happy, primarily the oil consumer. As long as the price of WTI is above 30$, the shale oil provider are still in the profitable range. We have seen the 22$ price during early 2016, Trump won the election and the price rally until peak multi year high of 78$. Which means, the current wave is expected to complete at the range of 20-30$, thus making way for the epic rally to 116$ !
Instead of going down on the wave C, oil ascend upwards and heading towards the major downtrendline. If the downtrendline is broken, possible to see price heading back to 75$
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Wave 5 is completed sooner than I expected. Thank God for the oil rally earlier this year. Now preparing for a corrective wave and whether we can see oil holds up the 80$ support
Your break-even price for crude production at $30 is too low. The largest producer in the Permian starts bleeding red ink on many wells below $45 and loses the ability to operate te vast majority of wells near $40. Your enthusiasm is admirable, but Im sorry to say that Mr Elliot Wave was not an oil man.
RemisierSyazwan
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@bxhorn, thank you sir for the insight regarding the cost of production for oil. I'm happy that Elliot Wave helped me to plot the price projection and thus rewarded for :)