themarketzone

Critical zone in Crude Oil - Double bottom with monthly pattern

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
Last time I mentioned Crude was when it bounced from the Monthly pattern I've posted here about more than half a year ago.
Now Crude is about to reach 40$ again and maybe create a monthly double bottom inside the pattern's PRZ.

The longer term target levels are shown in the chart.

If 40$ won't hold as support, the price could try and re-test the X point level near 33$
thx for sharing..i don`t see a reversal Chance at that Level... here is my view :-)
No sustainable signals for a trend reversal!
snapshot



Nearly all views i read on this platform are bullish @ that level - many think about a double bottom as a trend reversal.
But dipping the former Pivot LOW is not yet enough to signal a trend reversal. Perhaps the exspected Rebound (dead cat bounce) is just good for scalping. (My maximal target for a possible Rebound is the 38,2 fibo (38,85-61,55) - but i don`t exspect a Rebound from this Niveau, i exspect a Rebound when crude will reach ist s falling green Support line @ 38.75
And yes, the RSI is oversold but still without any buying Signal, and yes, we have seen a selloff without any Rebound since the high @ 57.7$ But all WMAs are directed downwards - without any sign for a trendchange.

The useage of many WMAs or EMAs is the so called "rainbow-concept"
An important concept of this trading approach is the so called "spin" ! This refers to the trend reversal in itself or the time in which the Rainbow rotates . Due to the construction of the Rainbow as a "multi- cross" system does not generate this a single signal, such as the breakthrough to a new high / low but needs time to unfold again. With this concept you have a trend-following system, but also the Advantage that you can catch sustainable trend reversals (with a time lag - but you can minimize that lag, because of the use of short timeframes composed with Long time Frames)
+1 Reply
We are pretty much talking about the same price zone. In monthly chart, a 1.5$ isn't much of a difference.
Very nice chart. I'm familiar with the rainbow technique but beside providing me information about possible shit in trend I didn't find a use for it when I want to find a trade entry level.
Regarding Crude.. seems like everyone is bullish, which is kinda scary :)
Good luck and thanks for your review
+1 Reply
themarketzone PRO themarketzone
Huge monthly Pinbar inside the PRZ. Correction ahead? I think so
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IvanLabrie PRO themarketzone
I went long from 39 and closed at 43 something. Now shorted it, stop at 46.91.
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You are shorting a monthly bullish Pinbar? Tell me you're talking about a short term trade. :)
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IvanLabrie PRO themarketzone
Of course, closing on retrace to make some bucks by monday.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
I think S&P is reversing, oil too, usdcad too, eurusd not yet but soon, and absolutely not sure about gold's short term direction, but longer term still heading down. :)
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Look at the $SPY's weekly candle. I think that all we saw during the last two weeks is a crazy summer price action and we'll get back to consolidation mode real soon.. I like the short option, but don't fight it above 200$..
My pullback target is 204-206
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IvanLabrie PRO themarketzone
Stop is 2029.10 on 1/2 and 2104.70 on the other 1/2.
If the trade works, it shouldn't take longer than one more day and just melt, and we get a #2 Black Monday.
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Good luck.. I'm going to work over the weekend to cover the last two weeks towards my newsletters. There were some crazy moves I'm going to write about - $SPY, $CL, $GBPNZD, $NZUSD, $EURUSD, $GBPUSD.. amazing summer.
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IvanLabrie PRO themarketzone
Thanks!
Really great moves unfolding indeed.
I was having a hard time with the market conditions all year...not so much of a range trader myself.
Have a good one!
+1 Reply
Nice trade from 39 to 43
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
(futures, should have added, Sep. contract)
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Need your views for monday Intraday
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With such bullish weekly move (bullish engulfing - Weekly) I'd expect a continuation towards 50$. 48-49$ is a minor resistance zone that may create some intraday pullback
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