Crude oil Futures (CL) (March 2022)
Welcome back
I have been speculating on oil for just over a year, but it appears things are only just now getting interesting.
First major targets I see on the horizon: $44/barrel to $60/barrel
In January 2022 I posted a chart update that ended up being very very wrong, I wish that I had gone back to the original idea I was working on in June 2021.
It seems like the older futures chart here had a much more accurate outlook.
Anyways, I actually made 2 updates in January 2022. The first January 2022 chart update was based on a fractal that I found in a different time-frame, so it really had no relevance or reliability to begin with. Looking back on some public ideas on TV in February and January 2022, it appears other people had the exact same chart setup, without fractals but same idea and time-frame expectancy of a crash with a short play at around $92/barrel.
The second January 2022 chart update that I made was only to adjust the targets higher to the trend line that everyone was focused on.
The charts I made in June 2021 are a bit better and have more precise ideas in my opinion.
June 2021 LT chart
June 2021 MT chart
In June 2021, I speculated the possibility of an impulsive motive wave. I do believe my measurement for 3rd wave was close but slightly off, I believe the 3rd wave completed right after posting those charts.
My original idea was that the 3rd wave could run to $86/barrel by end of August 2021 and then correct down into $60/barrel ranges by October 2021. A drop to $60 actually happened first, and then a rise to $85 still happened in Oct/Nov 2021 followed by another correction back down near $60s/barrel ranges. As of right now I am under the impression that the price action from $86-$60 is a segment of the 5th wave. So to be clear, the price targets still happened but not in the exact order I believed they would. The long target was delayed by about 1 month from where I figured it could have been. The short target still happened after that long target and approximately within the time frame I was expecting. So some wins and losses in that analysis.
My charts were calling for a run from $60/barrel ranges up to $117-$131 by February 15th 2022 at the earliest in futures markets. The price action hit $130.50 as of March 4th 2022 so from here on out I would say things could start to get a little shaky.
I have in the past week been speculating to myself the possibility for crude oil futures to still surpass $131. I think this scenario is much lower probability, but if it does happen, I don't think prices will go too much further (max of $140-$180) and will still crash back to under $60/barrel within the next 2 months at the max.
This could be based on a biased misconception, but I am seeing quite a bit of talk about going long on oil contracts as it seems right now, many are assuming oil can absolutely go even higher especially with all the global drama going on.
One thing I have considered about all of this, is the last time the national USA gas average price was this high markets immediately crashed afterwards, and in the years since. 2008 crash could end up being a fractal that plays a big role in how this next pattern could look.
I don't think there are many good profits to be made at the top of any market, but I could be entirely wrong about oil not going much higher this run.
Some information about oil life expectancy
Some (more) information about oil life expectancy
According to the above, There may be about 20 or so more years before we run out of usable oil reserves. As far as the profitability of oil mining, I'm not sure how that plays out but its expected that the 2050s through the end of the century we will run out of new supplies of various resources including gold. That gives us just a little bit of time left for some crazy and unexpected volatility both ways in my opinion, before the obvious inevitability of skyrocketing crude oil and gasoline prices.
To get on with this analysis, I am going to now branch off of my original June 2021 ideas, as it seems to be the most accurate and I believe there is still much to correlate with other markets like metals/stocks which may follow similar market mindsets.
If we consider the run from $60/barrel to $130.50/barrel the 5th wave of the first proposed 5 wave impulsive motive that I suspected, then some sort of corrective ABC wave to follow would be logical in my opinion.
A corrective ABC wave can be a zigzag, flat, triangle, double three, or triple three according to Elliott wave theory. If we consider the 2008 crash, everything got wiped mostly in almost a year with very little recovery on the way down until after the first major leg was already made, which is pretty quick considering how long it took to build up.
I would expect similar patterns and timeframes this time around again, but I would like to see more time pass and more data "print" to the charts to start looking for trends and additional fibonacci ratios, right now the ABC plotting I have is just a general idea. The June 2021 chart idea had an ABC that may be a bit unrealistic so for now I am considering that if there is to be a major corrective wave here, it will most likely form a zigzag. We need to see the first major A wave complete to start making any realistic measurements of where B and C will land. I have included a 5 wave corrective motive as a zigzag can also turn into that with the right wave C proportions, but it's just to be considered as another inaccurate possibility for now until we have more data and can start to line some pieces up.
if wave A is subdivided into 3 waves after it prints, it can no longer be a zigzag and new considerations must be made, perhaps a flat of some sort or something more complex.
My June 2021 chart was calling for a low of $11-$42, with my C wave ending near $30. I don't think this is terribly wrong but I am just not sure how to verify that as a price target without a wave A or B yet so I will continue speculating on what I think other key levels could be.
I think it could also be possible for oil to go as low as $21/barrel by the end of the corrective wave(s). Maybe the 2020 wick is a signal that must be fixed, and price could even reach insane $5/barrel levels again temporarily. But as of right now, the sanest expectations I can come up with lie in the moving averages which seem to point towards $44/barrel to $60/barrel at this moment. But I believe all of the above is still possible, I just don't have much to confirm these contrarian ideas right now.
Previous charts I've built coming to these conclusions:
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
Welcome back
I have been speculating on oil for just over a year, but it appears things are only just now getting interesting.
First major targets I see on the horizon: $44/barrel to $60/barrel
In January 2022 I posted a chart update that ended up being very very wrong, I wish that I had gone back to the original idea I was working on in June 2021.
It seems like the older futures chart here had a much more accurate outlook.
Anyways, I actually made 2 updates in January 2022. The first January 2022 chart update was based on a fractal that I found in a different time-frame, so it really had no relevance or reliability to begin with. Looking back on some public ideas on TV in February and January 2022, it appears other people had the exact same chart setup, without fractals but same idea and time-frame expectancy of a crash with a short play at around $92/barrel.
The second January 2022 chart update that I made was only to adjust the targets higher to the trend line that everyone was focused on.
The charts I made in June 2021 are a bit better and have more precise ideas in my opinion.
June 2021 LT chart
June 2021 MT chart
In June 2021, I speculated the possibility of an impulsive motive wave. I do believe my measurement for 3rd wave was close but slightly off, I believe the 3rd wave completed right after posting those charts.
My original idea was that the 3rd wave could run to $86/barrel by end of August 2021 and then correct down into $60/barrel ranges by October 2021. A drop to $60 actually happened first, and then a rise to $85 still happened in Oct/Nov 2021 followed by another correction back down near $60s/barrel ranges. As of right now I am under the impression that the price action from $86-$60 is a segment of the 5th wave. So to be clear, the price targets still happened but not in the exact order I believed they would. The long target was delayed by about 1 month from where I figured it could have been. The short target still happened after that long target and approximately within the time frame I was expecting. So some wins and losses in that analysis.
My charts were calling for a run from $60/barrel ranges up to $117-$131 by February 15th 2022 at the earliest in futures markets. The price action hit $130.50 as of March 4th 2022 so from here on out I would say things could start to get a little shaky.
I have in the past week been speculating to myself the possibility for crude oil futures to still surpass $131. I think this scenario is much lower probability, but if it does happen, I don't think prices will go too much further (max of $140-$180) and will still crash back to under $60/barrel within the next 2 months at the max.
This could be based on a biased misconception, but I am seeing quite a bit of talk about going long on oil contracts as it seems right now, many are assuming oil can absolutely go even higher especially with all the global drama going on.
One thing I have considered about all of this, is the last time the national USA gas average price was this high markets immediately crashed afterwards, and in the years since. 2008 crash could end up being a fractal that plays a big role in how this next pattern could look.
I don't think there are many good profits to be made at the top of any market, but I could be entirely wrong about oil not going much higher this run.
Some information about oil life expectancy
Some (more) information about oil life expectancy
According to the above, There may be about 20 or so more years before we run out of usable oil reserves. As far as the profitability of oil mining, I'm not sure how that plays out but its expected that the 2050s through the end of the century we will run out of new supplies of various resources including gold. That gives us just a little bit of time left for some crazy and unexpected volatility both ways in my opinion, before the obvious inevitability of skyrocketing crude oil and gasoline prices.
To get on with this analysis, I am going to now branch off of my original June 2021 ideas, as it seems to be the most accurate and I believe there is still much to correlate with other markets like metals/stocks which may follow similar market mindsets.
If we consider the run from $60/barrel to $130.50/barrel the 5th wave of the first proposed 5 wave impulsive motive that I suspected, then some sort of corrective ABC wave to follow would be logical in my opinion.
A corrective ABC wave can be a zigzag, flat, triangle, double three, or triple three according to Elliott wave theory. If we consider the 2008 crash, everything got wiped mostly in almost a year with very little recovery on the way down until after the first major leg was already made, which is pretty quick considering how long it took to build up.
I would expect similar patterns and timeframes this time around again, but I would like to see more time pass and more data "print" to the charts to start looking for trends and additional fibonacci ratios, right now the ABC plotting I have is just a general idea. The June 2021 chart idea had an ABC that may be a bit unrealistic so for now I am considering that if there is to be a major corrective wave here, it will most likely form a zigzag. We need to see the first major A wave complete to start making any realistic measurements of where B and C will land. I have included a 5 wave corrective motive as a zigzag can also turn into that with the right wave C proportions, but it's just to be considered as another inaccurate possibility for now until we have more data and can start to line some pieces up.
if wave A is subdivided into 3 waves after it prints, it can no longer be a zigzag and new considerations must be made, perhaps a flat of some sort or something more complex.
My June 2021 chart was calling for a low of $11-$42, with my C wave ending near $30. I don't think this is terribly wrong but I am just not sure how to verify that as a price target without a wave A or B yet so I will continue speculating on what I think other key levels could be.
I think it could also be possible for oil to go as low as $21/barrel by the end of the corrective wave(s). Maybe the 2020 wick is a signal that must be fixed, and price could even reach insane $5/barrel levels again temporarily. But as of right now, the sanest expectations I can come up with lie in the moving averages which seem to point towards $44/barrel to $60/barrel at this moment. But I believe all of the above is still possible, I just don't have much to confirm these contrarian ideas right now.
Previous charts I've built coming to these conclusions:
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
