Natalie.Gin

Important Price For The Crude Oil:***

NYMEX:CL1!   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
3672 29 59
As you can see there are two options for Crude Oil             price.

Option #1:
The red line represent a continuation of the Bears controlling the CL             market.
For now we are just testing the purple Trend Line.

SELL ON BREAK

Option #2:
If the purple Trend Line will hold, we will probably test the lower side of the yellow box area above us.

BUY-WHEN BREAKING THE YELLOW BOX

** FYI**

There is a big Bear Flag from the 30/09/14.

And if you will look carefully you can see a small Bear Flag starting from the 06/07/15.

Related Ideas

Natalie.Gin
a year ago
IMPORTANT#### HAHAHA
+1 Reply
GianB Natalie.Gin
a year ago
If you had to give a probability of either possibility, what would you give? 60/40, 50/50? The fundamentals aren't looking good for oil especially with the Iran deal. I do believe the USA and the EU are pushing to lift the oil sanctions at the slowest pace possible but that oil will hit the market sooner than later and it won't be good to a over supplied market. Also if China economy is slowing down, I believe their demand for oil will decrease which is the opposite of what OPEC believes because they are pumping at a record pace thinking demand will increase in 2016. What are your thoughts?
+2 Reply
Familyfella
a year ago
I day trade /CL and for the past 20 minutes I have watched it sit stagnant, amazingly at perfect equilibrium. It is a big crossroad right now.
+1 Reply
fosterdad
a year ago
Thanks! Nice charts. Commodities on a whole look bearish. -D
+1 Reply
arvand013
a year ago
It was very good
+1 Reply
AMBRISH
a year ago
THANKS FOR CLEAR VIEW ON CL1.
GOOD SET UP. ONE HAS CHOOSE FOR TRADE.
+1 Reply
AlbertCheng
a year ago
good chart and analysis!
+1 Reply
Gainz
a year ago
So it could go up... or down...? Profound.
Reply
Natalie.Gin Gainz
a year ago
I also told you what to do in any given option...
http://www.humoar.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/jeep-wheelie-haters-gonna-hate.gif
+4 Reply
tst
a year ago
currently fundamentals with supply etc suggest option 1. im looking at the same level because of the 61.8 fib pull back from the rally of the low. break here and its just a dead cat bounce to lower low.
snapshot
+2 Reply
Natalie.Gin tst
a year ago
Hahahaha!...Funny...(:
+1 Reply
djep937
a year ago
Good work here, If you look at all time data the lows of 2008 look similar to those we seen this year, this also ties in with all time support levels. I think we could see a rally back to 200 EMA around April-June 2016. I think the bear flag we see is a short cycle bear and we are looking to retest the all time support level again. Once retested i think late this week i think the rally will begin looking for around $85/86 at the 200 EMA. I could go longer term but don't feel i need to at this point.
Reply
AndyM PRO
a year ago
That's exactly what the market wants you to do: it will break the trendline, you will sell on break (so as everybody else will) and then it will reverse.
+2 Reply
smitheric1970 PRO AndyM
a year ago
Exactly. I don't think it will take much either Andy, was original hoping for 48 but don't think we'll break 50. I'm thinking we will see a bounce back to the 56.51 level. Over the next few weeks, I'm assuming we will see a slight markdown in DX, markup in S&P, markup in Canadian dollar. Then we'll be even closer to 'potential' rate hike and a crash in S&P, spike in DX and new lows in Crude.
Reply
SO let me see if I get this straight, crude oil can go either up or down right?
+2 Reply
Kumowizard PRO vlad.adrian
a year ago
You forgot one option! It can stay as choice 51 USD! :-)
+1 Reply
vlad.adrian PRO Kumowizard
a year ago
Ye, sure it's possibility, but the author didn't mention it... so u think it can go up, down, or sideways? is that what you mean?
+2 Reply
Kumowizard PRO vlad.adrian
a year ago
Exactly, that's what I mean. From this perspective it can go up, down or sideaways, with 33.3333 % chance on each scenario!
+1 Reply
vlad.adrian PRO Kumowizard
a year ago
I don't usually agree with other traders, but I think you might be right on this one...
+1 Reply
AndyM PRO vlad.adrian
a year ago
If the moderator who is part of this conversation considers it fruitful and value-added, then please keep going.
Reply
vlad.adrian PRO AndyM
a year ago
just a friendly joke, that's all.
+1 Reply
CoolCreekCTA
a year ago
Nice work Natalie. Does the yellow box between 48-46.93 represent a solid support zone in your opinion or are you forecasting a drop to the 44 zone.
Best wishes.
Reply
MaryJane
a year ago
thx for sharing! i prefer the option one cause the trend is my friend :-)
Several ways to reach the TP1 @ 45$
snapshot
Reply
Sachinsyd MaryJane
a year ago
This is not possible ever!
Reply
Still 42.5 support is intact, lower than that is really ugly
Reply
Nice job Natalie! I thought we would have seen a bounce back up to 56.5 but I was very wrong! It looks like there was prolonged ranging in the 40-48 area in years past. Interested in your thoughts on that.
Reply
zineroi
a year ago
Any idea how green and red curves are constructed please ?
Reply
Natalie.Gin zineroi
a year ago
Based on natural price action
Reply
zineroi Natalie.Gin
a year ago
tanks, any recommendation books about that please ?
Reply
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