This is my long term journey with oil. I first began shorting in late July, as noted on the chart, and have been continuously involved with oil ever since.
Oil is in a genuine slide, hitting very low levels, which a lot of people here won't be used to if you're a new trader, or learning to trade. Having been asked to share my fundamental Oil data, I am afraid I am unable to do this. And would like to preserve my findings for myself.
You all know how much I hate technical analysis, and only endorse fundamental trading as the way forward, and I abide by this... However I do believe technical analysis is a good way to find OPTIMUM ENTRY INTO A TRADE... But you should never just trade a stock purely because of technicals.. It's the most stupid thing ever... I'm Concluding with a firm fist that oil is in a solid downtrend... And should be this way due to a million and one factors.
NOTE: IF YOU DON'T HAVE A POSITION IN OIL, WAIT FOR APPROPIATE ENTRIES USING A WELL FOUNDED OOO! GETTING IN ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE WITHOUT OOO IS DANGEROUS, IF NOT A STUPID WAY TO TRADE...
Best of luck, Tom
Comments
Nick_C_
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Thank god for this chart
TomProTrader
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Happy it's of use. Lol :-)
IvanLabrie
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Booked short at 39 and went long. Closed long at 43. Now short from 45.36, stop at 46.91. :)
The_Cannalyst
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thx for sharing... here is my view :-)
Nearly all views i read on this platform are bullish @ that level - many think about a double bottom as a trend reversal.
But dipping the former Pivot LOW is not yet enough to signal a trend reversal. Perhaps the exspected Rebound (dead cat bounce) is just good for scalping. (My maximal target for a possible Rebound is the 38,2 fibo (38,85-61,55) - but i don`t exspect a Rebound from this Niveau, i exspect a Rebound when crude will reach ist s falling green Support line @ 38.75
And yes, the RSI is oversold but still without any buying Signal, and yes, we have seen a selloff without any Rebound since the high @ 57.7$ But all WMAs are directed downwards - without any sign for a trendchange.
The useage of many WMAs or EMAs is the so called "rainbow-concept"
An important concept of this trading approach is the so called "spin" ! This refers to the trend reversal in itself or the time in which the Rainbow rotates . Due to the construction of the Rainbow as a "multi- cross" system does not generate this a single signal, such as the breakthrough to a new high / low but needs time to unfold again. With this concept you have a trend-following system, but also the Advantage that you can catch sustainable trend reversals (with a time lag - but you can minimize that lag, because of the use of short timeframes composed with Long time Frames)
TomProTrader
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Very nice. Looks like that target was the bottom (at least for now)
Nice work.
Tom
DavideRicky
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Tom do you mean extremely long term dynamic resistance or support?
TomProTrader
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Support... mistype :P
Tom
nahidik
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I am new to tis please explain OOO. Feeling a bit dumb.
TomProTrader
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I wouldn't worry, a lot of people have asked!
OOO is Order Of Operation. Below i've done a basic financial model of OOO.
i)Fundamentals give us indication it may be time to buy, or sell a stock based on valuation or news factors that have recently came to pass..
ii)Is buyer, or seller participation supporting our theory in a technical way?? and is it supporting popular theory?
ii)Where abouts are we in a technical trend when the news, or fundamental knowledge comes to light?
iii)Are we in a technically optimal place to make entry to have tight stop loss and maximise profit? If yes, we wait for entry, if not, we see market reaction and see if we can find an eventual trade... If we cannot, then this wasn't the stock for us. We want a stock to be in a trend to show public reaction has happened due to the news.... Or other realisation... If it hasn't, then the stock is missing the essentials of a trade, liquidity, and volatility...
This is a basic order of operation... One I take when deciding stocks to trade.
Tom
IvanLabrie
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Great summary, agreed. No liquidity/volatility, no trade (in general).