A break of this current trendline would lead to a move up to $38. Volume analysis indicates that the point of control is at $45, which coincides with bullish sentiment. We are also currently at a point of relatively high volume, with smaller nodes at price points above market until we reach the Point of Control. Looking at COT data, speculators are net short while there is still plenty of open interest, For me it feels like a rally is incoming, at least to $38. Of course, there is dependence on OPEC. Some production was frozen last week, however this is very different to output cuts. On the first mention of an output cut coming out of OPEC would signify bullishness.
Not to be taken as investment advice.
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I agree with the bullish outcome, I see for the Brent next hard resistance at 40-42$, also hitting another TL as in the chart below. Besides the difference you have mentioned between production and output, the agreement was based on freezing recent production as a limit, which is still too much, besides the increasing oil storage. Also Iran's rejection to participate in this agreement would also bring selling pressure, so next resistance could play out as the next top I think. Cheers! :)