JulianVillamizar
Long

Correction or euphoria in oil

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
WTI is in a key price level for technical analysts, in coming days could show a change of direction or short-term bullish euphoria. This is what investors should consider.

For weeks there is evidence of a minor imbalance between supply and demand of oil             , two weeks are completed with falls in US inventories. This means that the market correctly anticipated the rally of nearly 100% recovery of WTI.

Despite this strong advance, the trend has "momentum" so that investors continue to buy until they receive news that makes them change direction. Given bollinger bands of moderate amplitude, a market overbought ( RSI ) and MACD with slight divergence; is likely to be given a strong movement within 2 weeks.

Is the movement will be upwards or downwards? This depends on USD48.70, short term support maintaining the strength of buyers. While the price does not fall below this level you can expect USD52 and USD54. If USD48.70 breaks down, correction arrive early and oil             could return to levels of USD42 per barrel.

Since the market is in uptrend and taking into account the formation of moving averages, there is a probability of 65% to reach new highs against 35% probability of starting a correction this week.
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