Crude Price Cycle not necessarily quantifiable, but overlays pretty well across the board. A very nice Shiff Pitchfork certainly may showcase more merit for holding long term support and a forecast for the largest year-over-year production change in history (see Oil Prices Charging Lower As Oversupply Concerns Plague Traders) entertains the notion that WTI Crude Oil will return to the median line near $94 as quickly as it fell from it.
I think once the Commercials Net Position breaks above -200K the Non-Commercials will take note and that will set the stage for the beginning of the run. The Non-Commercials are holding a large number of short positions and long too; however, when they begin dumping these unusually large number of shorts we will get quite the short covering rally. It all begins with the Commercials though and were not quite at a large enough change in net position yet to start the phase. I have created a pretty neat indicator that captures the change in net position so will keep you posted when my private indicator gets the signal.