Oil - Accumulation into First Quarter of 2017?
Although, for fun, I often find my self drawing numerous lines of supposed Davinci Code channel lines into an array of spiderwebs... At heart, I am a supply/demand purist; seeking to discover the big Market Movers new and old levels of accumulation and distribution. Note that on this chart BC = Buying Climax, an interim level where the market movers end their buying and then SC = Selling Climax, typically previous areas of broken down accumulation that becomes our current resistance or selling levels. We can find price ranges between these two levels until demand is absorbed by supply or vice versa and one of two things happens; either prices accumulate back above the older 'broken' selling climax or prices are distributed at the more recent Buying climax level - which represents a distribution range; this is what I believe that prices are currently doing; distributing.
The chart outlines what I believe are significant daily buying climaxes since August that were followed by breakdowns. However, there was much strength in this late November really validated by volume and I believe that a breakdown of the current distribution range will be followed by prices seeking a 'lower high' on a weekly level. I am looking at the past few months of daily buying climaxes as the new demand level from 47.83-48.52. After which I believe that due to the recent agreements for cuts between members and non members of OPEC; that prices will rally into approximately April of 2017 (14 month cycle top) seeking supply (resistance) levels at the 12/15/14 weekly Selling Climax at approximately 56.52-47.73 level.
Note that this is intended purely for outlining potential supply/demand zones and as I keep rather wide SL's, this does not include a specific trading strategy; there are others here that are much better at risk management analysis/strategies than I.
Nonetheless, I am looking for the smoking gun of the FOMC to pressure prices this week and will be watching for a breakdown of the 51.06 daily buying climax and looking for demand/buying at 47.83-48.52 level. Should that break, I will look for support at the next lower weekly range bottom between 45.92 and 46.57. The lower lever is of course a much better level to buy from a risk/reward view.
Good trading all!
The chart outlines what I believe are significant daily buying climaxes since August that were followed by breakdowns. However, there was much strength in this late November really validated by volume and I believe that a breakdown of the current distribution range will be followed by prices seeking a 'lower high' on a weekly level. I am looking at the past few months of daily buying climaxes as the new demand level from 47.83-48.52. After which I believe that due to the recent agreements for cuts between members and non members of OPEC; that prices will rally into approximately April of 2017 (14 month cycle top) seeking supply (resistance) levels at the 12/15/14 weekly Selling Climax at approximately 56.52-47.73 level.
Note that this is intended purely for outlining potential supply/demand zones and as I keep rather wide SL's, this does not include a specific trading strategy; there are others here that are much better at risk management analysis/strategies than I.
Nonetheless, I am looking for the smoking gun of the FOMC to pressure prices this week and will be watching for a breakdown of the 51.06 daily buying climax and looking for demand/buying at 47.83-48.52 level. Should that break, I will look for support at the next lower weekly range bottom between 45.92 and 46.57. The lower lever is of course a much better level to buy from a risk/reward view.
Good trading all!
Comment:
Last sentence of second paragraph should have read: "prices will rally into approximately April of 2017 (14 month cycle top) seeking supply (resistance) levels at the 12/15/14 weekly Selling Climax at approximately 56.52-57.73 level" - not 47.73....
